FXUS63 KEAX 231923
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated sprinkles possible along the MO/KS state line this 
  afternoon- early evening. 

* Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes expected tonight 
  mainly west of a line from Lamoni- Moberly MO. Rainfall amounts 
  are expected to be light totaling less than 0.25". 

* Temperatures warm to mid week ahead of a cold front moving through 
  the region.

* Breezy southerly winds expected next weekend, with the potential 
  of showers and thunderstorms. 
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isentropic lift on the 305-310K surfaces is leading to weak shower 
activity building into the area from Nebraska and eastern KS.  Very 
dry air in the subcloud layer (nearly 10K feet) is going to limit 
what reaches the ground, but could see a few sprinkles along the 
Missouri/KS state late through the afternoon into the early evening 
hours.  

Towards midnight, low level warm air/moisture advection leads to 
weak instability and could see spotty scattered showers develop. 
Instability remains quite weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft, 
but still should be able to support weak showers with an embedded 
lightning strike here and there.  06Z NAM NEST hinted at the 
potential for heavy rainfall with this activity overnight, but 
successive model runs have contained precipitable water values to 
~1.5" (which is near normal for this time of year).  Expect 
accumulating precip to largely be west of a line from Lamoni Iowa to 
Moberly MO with surface high to the east limiting eastward extent of 
the precipitation shield.  

Low level warm air advection weakens after 12Z Monday and expect 
shower activity to weaken and shift southeast with time as short 
wave builds east. Partial clearing should allow for a decent 
temperature recovery on Monday, and even warmer conditions Tuesday 
into Wednesday as upper ridge across the west expands east. 

Ridge riding shortwave is expected to build into the Upper Midwest 
Wednesday, with trailing cold front moving through the region 
Wednesday morning.  Could see a few showers and storms with the 
frontal passage, but timing may limit coverage.  

Surface ridge moves through the region on Thursday with stronger 
return flow Friday into next weekend.  With the gulf wide open, 
ample moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions through the period. There could be a few
sprinkled this afternoon along and west of the MO/KS state line.
Towards 06Z, could see some scattered showers and storms
develop. These storms should be based near 10K feet agl, so
little to no visibility resriction is expected near the surface.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT