FXUS63 KEAX 191934 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 234 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of flooding along rivers and low lying areas continue. Many rivers should recede back below flood stage by the end of the week*. *Dependent on precipitation forecasts. - A cooler quieter pattern sets in for the next couple days. Warmer temperatures and precipitation chances return Thursday night into Friday (40% to 80%) with intermittent precipitation chances continuing through the weekend (20% to 30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overcast skies and drizzle dominate Tuesday across the region. A saturated low layer leftover from Monday night's storms and a notable inversion aloft keep misty conditions around until incremental bits of solar heating eventually make their way toward the surface heating up the air just enough to dissipate fog and mist later this afternoon. The compression under the inversion also keeps north winds fairly gusty around 15-25 MPH. Cooler and slightly quieter conditions are expected for the next few days. High pressure builds in from interior Canada lowering temperatures from above normal to below normal. High temperatures in the upper 60s greatly contrast the 90s of last week. The upper level pattern continues to be punctuated by two stout yet relatively stationary systems. One, the Bermuda high off the SE CONUS coast and the second a deep, but sedentary trough near Baja California. These two features have been the primary influences on our weather pattern over the past several days, and tabbing through the extended forecast, that influence does not look to wane until the weekend. The Bermuda high's influence has weakened a bit which allowed the synoptic cold front to pass through last night bring the strong to severe and heavy rainfall. The trough across the SW CONUS remains stout ejecting shortwaves into the flow and keeping things slowly progressive. A more active weather pattern is expected to start later this week as a trough dips out of the northern Rockies Thursday. This tight pocket of CVA combined with a shortwave ejected from the stationary low in the SW CONUS brings the potential for shower development Thursday morning (40-60%). Further shortwave ejections spur the development of a lee trough which looks to bring increased opportunities (70-80%) for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning. This perturbation of the overall flow then facilitates the breakdown of the stationary SW CONUS trough mentioned earlier which proceeds to move it through the atmospheric current. Early projections show this cyclone remaining south of the area through the weekend as another complimentary wave across the northern CONUS prevents northward movement of the southern system. This does present some 20-30% probabilities for precipitation across the region through the weekend. Extended guidance points toward a more active pattern resuming across the continent after the holiday weekend as unblocked flow enables severals atmospheric waves to transit the region. Long range models show several opportunities for systems to pass by our area bringing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to the edges of the region. The biggest concern with any additional rainfall is aggravation of the current flooding being seen in area creeks and streams. Fortunately, this midweek break should allow some of the swollen creeks and streams to recede back toward normal levels just before the next rounds of rain on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 OVC and BR/DZ persist at most of the terminals. BR/DZ should slowly dissipate through the afternoon. CIGs remain borderline MVFR to IFR until tomorrow morning when sky coverage looks to open a bit. Northerly winds persist with intermittent gusts continuing through the afternoon. Winds shift to slight northeasterly tomorrow morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel