FXUS63 KDVN 200710
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
210 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain
  chances will be on the increase just before the weekend.

- A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than
  normal temperatures to the area next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Today: High pressure across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region will bring dry and seasonably cool conditions to the 
area with highs in the low to mid 60s. Light NE winds are 
expected through the day mainly under 15 mph. It will be cool 
again tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s for much of the 
area.

Thursday: As the high pressure system begins to shift more into
the eastern Great Lakes region, easterly winds will increase 
locally (gusting around 20 mph) and act to hold the dry air in 
place with dewpoints remaining in the 40s. Forecast highs are 
only a touch warmer in the mid/upper 60s. Due to the dry low- 
levels, most of the day should be dry with only low chances for
spotty light rain/sprinkles across the west (10-15%). 
Increasing moisture advection aloft at night will result in 
better chances for rain late (20-50%), especially across the 
south/southwest outlook area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday night through Friday night 
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to 
medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall.

The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler 
than normal temperatures.

The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest 
late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, 
most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low 
east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall 
rainfall potential for the area.

Based on the overall large scale picture, the various global 
models are indicating Friday morning and afternoon as being the
most likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model 
consensus has a 50-80% chance of rain. Rain would then linger 
into Friday evening before ending. Overall rainfall amounts will
be variable; some locations will see under 0.25 inches of rain 
while some may see close to a half inch.

Sunday through Tuesday
Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures

The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal 
shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as 
temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain 
above normal next week.

All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast 
which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity 
levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially 
into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most 
sensitive people.

Starting Tuesday, humidity levels will be much more noticeable 
and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The 
increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and 
a passing upper level disturbance is expected to result in 
mainly diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right 
now the model consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR will prevail through the period with light NW winds turning
to the NNE on Wednesday, generally around 10 kts or less. An
area of low clouds between 3000-5000 ft AGL will linger near 
DBQ through the overnight before dissipating early Wednesday AM 
but still anticipating mainly VFR ceilings there.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...08/ZU
AVIATION...Uttech