FXUS63 KDVN 192316
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
616 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cooler than normal second half of the week, rain
  chances will be on the increase just before the weekend.

- A pattern change over the weekend will bring warmer than
  normal temperatures to the area next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Slowly clearing skies will be seen tonight into Wednesday with 
cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Thursday through Friday night
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to
medium (20-40%) confidence on rainfall.

The second half of the work week will be characterized by cooler 
than normal temperatures.

The global models have a storm system forecast to impact the Midwest 
late in the week but there are timing differences. Interestingly, 
most ensemble members of the global models take the main surface low 
east of the Mississippi which raises questions regarding the overall 
rainfall potential for the area.

The timing differences between the various models and their 
ensembles result in an overall risk for rain that potentially could 
start as early as Thursday or hold off until Friday. Based on the 
overall large scale picture, the various global models are 
indicating very late Thursday night into Friday as being the most 
likely time period for any rain to occur. Here the model consensus 
has a 60-70% chance of rain. Rain would then linger into Friday 
evening before ending.

Overall rainfall amounts will be variable; Some locations will see 
under 0.25 inches of rain while some may see close to an inch.

Sunday through Tuesday
Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures

The holiday weekend will be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal 
shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Starting Sunday the pattern change will be noticeable as 
temperatures trend above normal and are then expected to remain 
above normal next week.

All models show an upper level ridge building along the east coast 
which will place the Midwest in southwest flow aloft. Humidity 
levels will be on the increase with dew points raising initially 
into the upper 50s and lower 60s; tolerable for all but the most 
sensitive people.

Starting Tuesday humidity levels will be much more noticeable and 
uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased 
moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and a passing 
upper level disturbance is expected to result in mainly diurnal 
convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model 
consensus has rain chances at 15 to 25 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Strato-cumulus continues to be scattered to broken over the
entire area as of 23Z tonight, but is slowly lifting. The
process of both lifting and breaking up has been delayed
reaching consistent VFR levels until 01-02Z tonight. After that,
consistent VFR few to scattered clouds are expected overnight
and full clearing Wednesday morning from any remaining high
clouds as well. Northwest winds around 10kts are expected
through the period with slight turning to the north Wednesday. 

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Ervin