FXUS63 KDVN 161708
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and
  expanded slightly to the south and east. A Frost Advisory is
  in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is be
  possible Saturday night but not as widespread.

- Winds gusting up to 45 mph can be expected during the daylight
  hours Friday. The probability of wind headlines being needed
  is 30-35%.

- A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal
  for late October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for late 
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Winds will gust up to 45 mph during the daylight hours Friday as the 
trop fold and wind max move through the area. Interestingly, the 
very short range models do not push the 45+ mph gusts into the area. 
Cloud cover will limit the amount of deep mixing but I would not be 
surprised if some localized gusts to 50 mph occur.

Trends with the winds will need to be watched today for a possible 
wind headline. The current probabilities of a wind headline is 30-35 
percent.

Tonight into Saturday morning the key message is the cold 
temperatures. Areas roughly north of a Sterling, IL to Fairfield, IA 
line have at least a 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures 
around freezing. If the current negative delta trend on lows tonight 
continues, the freeze warning may need to be expanded further to the 
south and east. Frost is a given with winds dropping to 5 mph or 
less after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Saturday night through Thursday
Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures
trending above normal.

Saturday night into Sunday will be another chilly night with frost 
again possible but not as widespread as Friday night into Saturday. 
Headlines for frost may be needed.

Starting Sunday and continuing through the week a general warm-up 
will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late 
October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs of 1000 to 2500 ft will continue this
afternoon, as an upper low moves through the area, with gusty
north/northwest surface winds of 15 to 25 kts. Some afternoon
gusts in northeast Iowa may reach 35 kts for brief times. Right
around sunset tonight, the system will move east of the region,
and skies will clear out, with winds decreasing under 10 kts.
This will be a quiet, VFR, chilly night and morning ahead into
Saturday.  

This afternoon, a few lingering brief light showers remain
possible, with visibility generally remaining above 6 miles. 

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076-077-087.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088-
     089-098-099.
IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-015.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Ervin