FXUS63 KDLH 200531 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1231 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles continue this afternoon and early evening. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd on north, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and threaten sensitive vegetation. A Frost Advisory has been issued for areas to the south. - Cool temps continue through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. - Near-critical fire weather conditions may develop on Thursday due to relative humidity dropping to 25 percent and gusty south winds up to 20 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, chilly and cloudy conditions will persist across the Northland with scattered rain showers/sprinkles. Temperatures tonight will highly depend on the cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a cellular nature to the clouds, which have broken out best over north-central Minnesota, but the cumulus field still extends well to the west and south. This creates a classic spring conundrum for overnight low temperatures when the mean of guidance is near freezing. High confidence exists for clearing and colder temperatures in the southwestern sections of our region, while lower confidence remains for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Am least confident (40-60%) in getting below 35 degrees over northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover, so have issued a Frost Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and Pine County in Minnesota. Around the Brainerd Lakes, I have the most confidence they will clear out and have gone below guidance with min temps around freezing. Farther north and into the Arrowhead, confidence in cloud cover lowers again, but the incoming air is cold enough I still have high confidence in freezing temperatures. A Freeze Warning has been issued tonight for areas from Duluth to Brainerd and northward, where temperatures will drop into the lower 30s. Wednesday will give us a sunny and milder day with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with cooler conditions near Lake Superior. Clear skies Wednesday night will allow for rapid cooling once again, leading to another night of patchy frost across the area with lows in the mid 30s. Frost Advisories are possible, even likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. On Thursday, high pressure departs to the east, bringing sunny skies, southerly winds warmer temperatures which continue into Friday. Highs both days should get into the 60s with upper 50s near Lake Superior. Rain chances return Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies and damp conditions will keep Saturday highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Upper level ridging to our west and southerly flow across the region will bring a surge of much warmer temperatures to the region for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. I expect highs on Monday to be well above normal. However, this will be a fairly active pattern with shortwaves likely to dive through this upper level pattern, and we also have some chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Some lingering cloud cover may lead to brief MVFR ceilings at DLH and INL. Winds will remain light and variable through Wednesday afternoon for all except DLH and HIB, which could see a few easterly gusts from the lake breeze. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Northwest to west winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots to slowly subside this afternoon and tonight. Winds back into the southeast and then east on Wednesday, remaining generally less than 10kts with waves of 2 feet or less. The east winds continue into Thursday, gradually increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range with waves slowly building but remaining below 3 feet. Stronger winds and building waves are expected Friday into Saturday as a low pressure system moves towards the area. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles occur today with chilly air moving in, keeping relative humidity values above 50 percent. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds under high pressure. Fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, featuring gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph and minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 percent. The most concerning conditions with the strongest winds will be found from Koochiching county south through the Brainerd Lakes. Moisture begins moving back into the area for Friday, which should keep minimum RH values above 30 percent for most of the area. The gusty southerly winds continue Friday, reaching 20 to 25 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...KML MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE