FXUS63 KDDC 222224 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tonight and again on Sunday night. Severe weather currently is not anticipated but a few of the stronger storms on Sunday may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across extreme southwest Kansas. - A warming trend is expected by Monday with highs across south central and portions of southwest Kansas ranging from 100 to near 103 on Monday. - Improving chance for precipitation will develop towards mid week with locally heavy rainfall possible from thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Earlier this morning, a 500mb high was centered over the Central Rockies with a northwest flow present across western Kansas. Embedded in this northwest flow there was an upper level trough crossing Kansas with scattered early morning convection occurring ahead of this upper level system and along/east of a 12-14C 700mb temperature gradient. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over the northern Plains. Models today remain in good agreement with the surface high building into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing some cooler, more seasonal air, trying to filter into areas of central Kansas through early next week. The surface boundary will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. Upslope flow north of this boundary and improving instability late day will result in an opportunity for late day/evening convection over eastern Colorado as a upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. While these storms may initially be capable of producing strong damaging winds gusts...these storms are expected to weaken as they move into western Kansas after sunset. Based on the latest 400mb PVU timing and location of the mid level baroclinic zone tonight it appears that this Colorado convection should move into west central Kansas well after sunset and cross west central and north central Kansas between midnight and daybreak on Sunday. These storms overnight are not expected. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Sunday. On Sunday night western Kansas will still be on the northeast edge of the upper high as more subtle upper waves rotate around this upper high. Models continue to advertise that another upper wave will exit eastern Colorado and cross western Kansas. This once again will favor scattered overnight thunderstorm, especially along and just north of wherever our mid level baroclinic zone will be located. Currently based on the latest CAMS it appears that this baroclinic zone further south which would allow areas south of the Arkansas river to have the chance (20-40%) for this convection Sunday night. Once again gusty winds will be the main hazard from the stronger storms with the more favorable area for these stronger gusty winds being across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 83). As for temperatures late this weekend and into early next week...850mb temperatures will warm by 1-3C and as a result the afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be around 100 degrees across much of southwest and south center Kansas, especially on Monday. Heat index values currently are forecast to remain below heat advisory criteria but it may be close for an hour or two near the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. Hot August temperatures will be returning but heat advisory criteria is not expected. Temperatures further north on Sunday will be cooler than these triple digit temperaturesand this will be due to increased cloud cover and possible precipitation. Cloudy skies during the afternoon may end up keeping afternoon temperatures as much as 8 to 10F cooler compared to areas that do not have any cloud cover. At this time confidence is not high on where these cooler temperatures/thicker cloud cover will be located Sunday afternoon so will stay close to the NBM guidance at this time. Those with outdoor plans on Sunday across southwest Kansas should keep in mind. If you are in an area where the sun is out before noon then highs will be closer to 100. You should therefore practice heat safety. In contrast if you have more clouds then sun during the afternoon then the highs on sunday afternoon will be closer to the lower 90s. Currently the NBM keeps the skies cloudy and has a 70 to 75% chance that highs along the I-70 corridor will be greater less 95. On Tuesday we will be monitoring a more significant upper level trough crossing the Rocking moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As it moves out into the Plains there will be a cold front dropping south into western Kansas . This cold front will not only bring an end to the warming trend but also will bring improving chances for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas. Improving chances for precipitation combined with PWATs improving to greater than 85% that of normal for this time of year may also result in widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms. At this time it appears that our best opportunity for this accumulating rainfall will be Tuesday night with the ensemble clusters indicating anywhere between 30 and 50% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7am Wednesday being >0.25". Latest NBM guidance was advertising 24hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning 0.25" at 40 to near 70%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. A modest breeze at around 10-15 KTs out of the east- southeast is forecast. Around 10-14Z, storms are forecast north of all terminals and has around a 15% chance to impact HYS. Ensembles keep lightning probabilities below 30% around HYS so VCTS was not added although it is possible. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...KBJ