FXUS63 KDDC 151002
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong north winds and much cooler temperatures Thursday.

- Wind chills in the 20s Friday morning. North winds diminishing
  Friday with cool temperatures. 

- First widespread frost and freeze of the fall season is
  expected Saturday morning, with temperatures in the 20s. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Mid-upper level trough that has been supplying the area with
dreary weather conditions will depart later this morning and
into this afternoon. Any lingering rain, storms, and fog will
diminish from southwest to northeast late this morning with
clearing skies and breezy conditions into the later afternoon.
Tonight has the potential to bring some frost and perhaps a
freeze. However, uncertainty remains with the level of winds 
that could limit those impacts, so held off on any headlines for
now.

Frost/Freeze headlines will be near certain Friday night into
Saturday morning as widespread upper 20s to low 30s are expected
across nearly all of western and central Kansas. With light
winds and clear skies, freeze and frost are highly likely. This
is shaping up to be a widespread issue for plants, so
precautions should be started to protect any most vulnerable
crops and plants. A warming trend will commence for the latter
half of the weekend and into next week as 850 mb temperature
anomalies go back to above average per global models. As far as
the next chance of any precipitation is concerned, only low POPs
(30-40%) are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but varying
patterns are evident among the globals, putting low confidence 
in the longer range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... 
Issued at 502 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Radar imagery at 10z Thu showed remaining scattered rain showers
in the vicinity of HYS, which will end over the next few hours.
Widespread IFR/MVFR stratus will persist through this morning,
with ceilings gradually improving to VFR through this afternoon.
Sky will rapidly clear around 00z Fri, as strong high pressure
and strong subsidence arrive. VFR/SKC is expected daylight
Friday. Strong north winds will impact all airports after 
15z Thu, gusting 30-35 kts, strongest at GCK/LBL. Northwest
winds will diminish somewhat after 00z Fri, but remain elevated
through 12z Fri. 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner