FXUS61 KCTP 170116
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
916 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe threat has ended.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday 

2) Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Blustery and much turning much colder tonight 
and Saturday

The post-frontal winds gusting 25-35 mph direct much colder air
into CPA through tonight into Saturday. Clouds and winds have
resulted in slightly warmer overnight low temps so advective
freeze is probably off the table for the NW mtns. Low level flow
turns more northerly overnight which should limit lake effect
response, although a few rain/snow showers remain possible over
the higher terrain. Min wind chills by Saturday morning will be
in the 25-35F range across the western and central Alleghenies.
Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees colder vs. Friday. 

------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into 
early Sunday

Frost/freeze still looks good for Saturday night into early
Sunday morning as clouds fade and winds subside. Issued Freeze
watch for active zones in the late innings of the growing
season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread MVFR cigs and rain showers have developed along and 
west of the Alleghenies this evening. Medium confidence (60 pct)
in MVFR cigs spreading east into UNV by 03z. Lower chance (<40 
pct) at IPT and <20 pct chance for MDT and LNS. Periods of IFR 
conds are possible at JST (60 pct chance) and BFD (<40 pct 
chance). Showers over the west will gradually taper off by 
12z Sat, and VFR conds become likely at all TAF sites by 16z 
Sat as much drier air erodes the clouds. NW winds will gust 
20-30 kts into the day Saturday. There may be periods tonight 
when the sfc wind is light enough for LLWS to be present, 
especially at IPT. Winds will become light areawide Saturday
night, combining with the cold air to result in widespread 
frost and freeze conditions.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
for PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Colbert