FXUS64 KCRP 191916 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 216 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Flash Flooding due to excessive rainfall tonight through && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another shortwave will move into the region from Mexico tonight around midnight. This feature will interact with a cold front moving into the area that has been primed with moisture, thanks to a strong low level jet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight along with the potential for heavy rain. It should enter the Brush Country around midnight and move into the Coastal Plains to Coastal Bend around 03-06 AM tomorrow morning. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat followed by hail. Likewise, with the soils primed from last nights MCS, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the CWA under Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding with a Slight Risk for the northern counties. As we move further into the week, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy through Sunday night. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday and Thursday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Thursday and Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Sunday night are 3.5-5" across the western half and 3.5-6" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Some areas could see isolated higher amounts. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day with MVFR ceilings creeping back into the forecast between 02-05z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected between 06-08z out west and 09-11z across the eastern half. Any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with strong winds as the primary hazard. Rain chances will quickly taper off after 12z. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-65%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 89 77 87 / 60 30 20 80 Victoria 73 87 73 84 / 70 30 20 90 Laredo 74 92 72 89 / 60 20 60 50 Alice 75 90 74 88 / 70 30 30 70 Rockport 78 89 78 88 / 70 30 20 80 Cotulla 72 89 72 87 / 70 40 70 70Kingsville 77 89 76 87 / 50 20 30 70 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 86 / 50 30 20 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84