FXUS64 KCRP 151849 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 149 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Cold front passage Friday, leading to widespread breezy conditions through Saturday and low to moderate chances for rain Friday morning (20-40%) - Elevated fire risk Friday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains - Below-normal temperatures in store Saturday and Sunday, and back to seasonal temps by mid-week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main event is within reach. The much advertised and anticipated cold front is forecast to move through South Texas Friday. The northerly wind shift is anticipated during the overnight hours but the quick increase in surface wind speeds will occur during the morning commute and into mid-morning. These winds then quickly increase to gale conditions over the bays and open Gulf waters, prompting the upgrade to a Gale Warning. Inland, wind gusts throughout Friday afternoon/evening have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 40 mph (and lingering longer for those along the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads). As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued to begin Friday morning, and ending across the Brush Country at 7 PM Friday, across the Coastal Plains at 1 AM Saturday, and on the barrier islands 1 PM Saturday. The winds in combination with RH values dropping to near or below 30% across the Rio Grande Plains Friday afternoon, but this will be limited to the late afternoon. As of now, no fire headline is anticipated, but one will be reconsidered this evening. With a cold front, one usually wonders if there will be precipitation tagging along. However, with this specific set up, much of the upper-level energy will remain north and east of the Red River. Additionally, a weak coastal trough is surprisingly advecting relatively-drier air towards the coast through Friday afternoon. While surface convergence ahead of the front would spark more widespread showers, it's looking like the spatial coverage of any showers will be more isolated and generally will be limited to before noon. For that reason, Friday night football games will see most bleachers drying out by game time and quite the struggle for kickers given any possible crosswind factors! With respect to temperatures, this will not be a sudden drop in temperatures with the increase in wind speed. It'll take some time to drop the dewpoint temperatures in the afternoon, but by the time folks start heading out to Friday night outdoor activities, the drop in temperature will be more noticeable (especially given the breezy conditions). That said, the highs will likely occur early Friday morning, and generally stay in the mid- to upper-70s Friday afternoon. Saturday morning, low temperatures will bottom out in the 50s (60s along the immediate coastline). The last time we had lows below 60F was back on May 3rd! Temperatures climb to the low to mid- 70s Saturday afternoon as winds decrease. If that wasn't enough, we're also monitoring coastal flooding concerns. While latest guidance puts high tide cycles between 1.3- 1.5 ft above MSL, even the wave energy won't be persistent enough to push wave periods above 8-9 seconds and thus not quite the runup Gulf beaches saw last week. All this to say, our first front will be a welcomed change to some, but treacherous for our mariners. Looking beyond Saturday, below- normal temperatures stick around Sunday with a more easterly wind component by mid-week and temperatures climbing towards the 90s thanks to building upper-level ridge influence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail throughthe TAF cycle, with the exception being with CIGs brought on by a cold front's rain chances. These will be limited to 11-15Z. Winds will quickly increase from light and variable to N'ly at 20-30KT gusting as high as 35KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Friday, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8) by late Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday afternoon. Overnight Friday into Saturday, seas increase to 8-13 ft. A Gale Warning is in effect Friday through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon, becoming a moderate northeast breeze by Sunday. Seas decrease to below 7 ft by Sunday morning. Rain chances increase 30-70% ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the remainder of the day. However, a strong cold front Friday morning will bring a strong north to northeast wind and drier conditions to South Texas through Friday afternoon. There may be a brief window Friday afternoon when RH values drop to critical levels while winds are still strong, leading to elevated or critical fire weather conditions, which may warrant a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning, but confidence is low that this will occur. RH values begin to increase early Friday evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 77 57 73 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 70 75 53 74 / 10 20 0 0 Laredo 72 74 56 73 / 0 40 0 0 Alice 72 76 55 73 / 10 30 0 0 Rockport 75 81 59 76 / 10 20 0 0 Cotulla 68 74 52 72 / 20 30 0 0 Kingsville 73 77 56 72 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 78 60 74 / 10 30 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ229>231-239- 240. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247-342>344-346-347. Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345- 442-443-447. GM...Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231- 232-236-237. Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250- 255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...AE/82