FXUS61 KCLE 230535 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather threat and flash flooding threat has subsided as storms move off to the east. The Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watches have be canceled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 2 A period of dry and quiet weather is expected the first half of the week. Scattered showers thunderstorms return Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced showers with isolated thunder possible for NEOH and NWPA. Clouds will increase and ceilings will lower between 3500 and 5000 feet downwind of Lake Erie later this morning for CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunder possible will come off Lake Erie into NEOH and NWPA starting later this morning. This cloudy and showery weather will continue off and on through tonight for the sites just mentioned. There is general mention of -shra 6sm for most the TAF time period. We did try to highlight the time window of MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions of 3sm to 5sm for the showers later this afternoon into this evening as well as a mention of VCTS. Outside of the favored lake effect impacts to aviation, NWOH will see mostly VFR conditions and ceilings. Winds will be westerly to west- northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning through the evening with gusts up to 20 or 25 knots possible, especially closer to the lakeshore. The gusty winds will relax to 10 knots or less by late evening. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely through Monday afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers with isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. VFR conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase 3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving through the Great Lakes region by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders/Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77