FXUS61 KCLE 192343 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 743 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western counties until 7PM this evening. Some convection has begun to develop upstream of the area and is expected to move into the destabilizing area across NW OH. Current temperatures have surged into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. The primary concern remains strong winds. Will need to continue to monitor conditions further east to determine if any expansion is needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The entire area remains highlighted in Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Primary threat remains strong winds, although localized heavy rainfall and small hail are possible. 2) A big cool down is on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as high moves into the area. 3) An unsettled weather pattern with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon, a few light showers continue to linger across far NEOH and NWPA, keeping cloud cover over that portion of the area and limiting keeping destabilization at a minimum right now. However, across western counties, cloud decks have scattered out and temperatures have quickly rose into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, trending towards the low 70s. This has allowed for rapid destabilization with modeled soundings suggesting SB CAPE already in the 2000-2500 J/kg range and steepening low level lapse rates close to 8 C/km. The best shear with this event should remain north of the area with bulk shear values in the 15-25 knot range. Given these environmental conditions, would not be surprised to see some isolated storms develop this afternoon ahead of a main line expected to push east later this evening. DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg add confidence that the primary hazard concern with any convection with be strong to damaging winds. Cannot rule out some small hail, especially in the discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The tornado threat remains very low, although not zero, given the best shear is to the north of the area. Any quick spin ups that do occur would likely be embedded within the line of convection this evening. The final concern is locally heavy rainfall, especially in the most developed cells, that could lead to localized ponding on area roads. Modeled soundings suggest that brief training of cells could occur this evening along the boundary which would coincide in timing with an increased warm cloud layer and PWAT push. Overall concern for widespread flooding this evening remains low, but to highlight the potential WPC has included the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) ERO today. KEY MESSAGE 2... Late tonight, a strong cold front is expected to move east across the area, marking a transition back to much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler compared to today, only climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s as 850mb of 5-7C nudge south over the area. Some lingering showers will be possible across the southern tier of counties on Wednesday before the cold front fully pushes south and high pressure dries everything out through Thursday. Unfortunately, that means that Wednesday will be rather dreary as cloud coverage across the area lingers before peaks of sunshine return on Thursday. To compliment daytime highs, overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s and into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night. At this point, there is no concern for a late season frost. KEY MESSAGE 3... The upcoming holiday weekend will be fairly unsettledas multiple shortwave troughs push east across the region, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area as a near stationary boundary settles somewhere near the CWA. Initially, this boundary on Friday should begin to push north of the area, marking a transition back to warmer and more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Then this boundary will ebb and flow over the CWA as the aforementioned troughs push east. As moisture increases over the area, multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially heavy at times, will result in possible flood concerns across area rivers and potential aerial flooding where rain persists. WPC has already highlighted the area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. The thunder potential should be isolated to daytime hours as diurnal instability adds additional support for shower development, but any severe potential remains uncertain at this time. Highs throughout the weekend will be in the 70s with mild overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... A line of thunderstorms are moving across Ohio currently located along the I-71 corridor, west of KCLE and east of KFDY. The line will continue to move eastward over the next few hours until it clears out of the region and east of KYNG by 04Z. With the thunderstorms, periodic gusts of up to 30-40 knots are expected as well as heavy rain dropping visibility down to IFR conditions. Behind the convection, a cold front will pass through the region and winds will begin to shift to be out of the northwest by 05-09Z, then out of the north by midday Wednesday. Additionally, ceilings will lower behind the front down to MVFR with some IFR possible KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, KERI. Conditions will steadily improve towards the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers late Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds gusting 20-30kts over the western basin and 15-25kts over the central and eastern basins ahead of a strong cold front that will come through later this evening/tonight. At that point, winds will come onshore in the wake of that front, northwesterly 10-15kts later tonight, and then northeasterly Wednesday into Wednesday night 10-15kts, and then 15-20kts Thursday through Friday night. Small Craft Advisories may be needed in these northeasterly winds for the middle and end of the week. Winds variable around 10kts for the weekend. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...23 MARINE...26