FXUS61 KCLE 161751
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
151 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area
today into Saturday.

2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through
Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre-
frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning,
while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated 
with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front
this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms
across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary
trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and 
evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across 
the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low
as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake
effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and
Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the
I-71/I-77 corridors. 

Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30
mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the 
frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough 
later this afternoon and evening. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, 
setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet
weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place
with the building high should result in efficient radiative
cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where
temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper
20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is
expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed.
Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as
high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows
may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with
increasing warm air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Areawide rain showers is expected to continue through the rest
of the day today, before the broader rain shield exits to the
east by this evening. Rain will mainly consist of 4-6+ SM but
some heavier showers could briefly produce visibility down to
1-2SM at times. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected, though 
patchy IFR ceilings are possible.

By late this evening into early tonight, lake effect rain
showers are expected across portions of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. There will be one or two primary bands
near KCLE/KMFD and then into Northwest Pennsylvania.

High pressure builds in late tonight into Saturday, with skies
becoming mostly sunny through the day.

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots become
north this evening, and then gradually diminish through the day
Saturday.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this
morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25
to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a
secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions
will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually 
subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 
knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 
knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high 
pressure influences much of the weather pattern.

Water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches
above low water datum across the western basin early this
morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this
morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the
cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143-
     149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Kahn