FXUS62 KCAE 240551
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
151 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Updated 06z Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances
  each day this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm
chances each day this week.


A weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the Midlands, 
roughly along the I-20 corridor and is expected to linger toward
the coast this week. This boundary is evident in the dewpoint 
gradient, with values in the mid-70s to our south/east and 
mid-60s to our north/west. Through today and into Tuesday, the 
upper-level pattern will support northwest flow and continued 
advection of direr air into the region. As a result, rain 
chances will remain low, with only isolated diurnally driven 
thunderstorms possible. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to 
remain unfavorable for deep convection, with only shallow, fair 
weather cumulus in the afternoon. Temps will remain near normal,
although still relatively warm as highs reach the low 90s. 
Lower dewpoints should also keep heat indices from becoming 
overly oppressive compared to recent weeks.

Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, leading
to increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. LREF 
probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values 
exceeding 1.75 inches beginning Wednesday. This increase in 
moisture, combined with upper- level troughing should support 
greater chances for diurnal convection. Weak shortwaves embedded
within the flow may provide additional forcing and further 
enhance coverage. Thursday currently appears to have the 
greatest potential for precipitation as the stalled boundary may
become reactivated into the FA. However, there remains 
uncertainty in the evolution and placement of the front. At this
time, a significant airmass change appears unlikely, with 
seasonably warm and humid conditions expected to persist through
the period with daily convection chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR Conditions expected through the period.

Drier air filtered into the area yesterday with low level
moisture lacking at the terminals. As a result, restrictions are
not expected to develop through the TAF period. Generally
westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected through today. High
resolution guidance favors any thunderstorm development to
remain east of the terminals with lower than 30 percent
thunderstorm probabilities so have left out any mention of 
tsra.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with
higher coverage of storms expected by midweek.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96