FXUS62 KCAE 191806 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 206 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A cold air damming setup may bring cooler temperatures than previously forecast to northern portions of the forecast area on Friday and possibly Saturday. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. The only significant change to the temperatures this week is that it is looking increasingly likely that high pressure in the Northeast will push a CAD/wedge boundary down into the Mid- Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area for Friday. That could bring temperatures down cooler than previously expected, at least for the northern FA. If the wedge boundary does linger around for longer than models show (as typical) then we could see those cooler temps stick around for Saturday. So the current temperature forecast for the northern FA this Saturday is uncertain. Other than that expect, above normal temperatures but lower than any Heat WWA thresholds. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward. A slight shift eastward in ridging is expected late this week. This should lead to increased moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as stronger southerly flow develops. There remains a large spread in atmospheric moisture between the Euro and other global ensembles. EC mean PWAT values are projected to be in the 97.5 to 99th percentile for much of the long holiday weekend, while the NAEFS keep the deepest moisture further north and west with stronger ridging. IVT remains near climatological normal through the period in both cases. The most agreement for deeper moisture between all ensembles seems to be late Friday and Saturday as a wedge boundary drops into the Mid-Atlantic States and possibly into the northern forecast area. This looks to be the highest chance of rain in the extended with the main focus to the north closer to the front. However with limited moisture transport and at least weak ridging QPF amounts should be light, generally around or less than 0.25 inches from Fri to Sat. On average, heights increase through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week indicating some potential for convective suppression despite PWAT values remaining slightly above normal. Blended model guidance has been consistently aggressive despite shallower moisture and a set up more indicative of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The wind field remains weak from late week to early next week so the potential for anything more than an isolated downburst is low. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions likely continue into this evening before another round of stratus and/or fog will be possible early Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies are seen across the area this afternoon with high pressure remaining in place. FEW cumulus have been seen as well as some passing cirrus and these should continue into this evening. 6-9 kt winds are expected to remain out of the south- southeast to south through the early evening before becoming light and variable tonight. Generous low level moisture tonight is expected to yield at least patchy fog and stratus, but confidence in the overall coverage and impacts is low. The latest HREF and SREF solutions yield probabilities for ceilings less than 500ft between 50-70% across the Coastal Plain and up toward OGB. These probabilities decrease toward the I-20 corridor, yielding a bit less confidence for the other terminals. With favorable conditions in place looking at BUFKIT soundings,think MVFR to IFR vsby and/or cig restrictions will be possible toward AGS/DNL/AIK as well. As newer guidance comes in, will continue to evaluate if probabilities increase toward CAE/CUB. Any restrictions are expected to clear after 13-15z, giving way to mostly clear skies and light winds out of the south. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...DH