FXUS62 KCAE 181333
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
933 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances for late this week and this weekend continue
although coverage could be lower than blended guidance
indicates.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Above normal temperatures likely through mid-week.

- 2. Rain chances increase late week and into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely through mid-
week.

Above normal temperatures likely through Thursday with highs in
the low to mid 90s expected and no or very little convective
coverage each afternoon. PWAT values will be slightly below to
around normal through Wednesday so Heat Index values will not 
rise to advisory thresholds. However, early season heat can
contribute to an increased risk of heat-related illness.

Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week and into this
weekend.

On average, model guidance shifts high pressure eastward late
this week, leading to increasing moisture over the Southeast
from Thursday through Memorial Day weekend. PWAT values rise to
just above normal for the season. However geopotential heights
from the NAEFS are also around normal. This would point to a
seasonal setup for scattered afternoon convection, possibly
enhanced to our north and west with shortwave energy riding over
the ridge. PoPs from blended guidance show values above what are
climatologically favored and could be too high given the 
synoptic set up.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected.

Any restrictions should return to VFR by 14z with southerly 
winds picking up through the day to around 5 to 7 knots by 15z 
and closer to 10 knots after 21z. Little chance for any 
convection on Monday given strengthening upper ridging. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in 
brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog
each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of 
next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...23