FXUS65 KBYZ 240704
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT 
104 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
  
- Drier with seasonal temps through midweek. Warmer after midweek
  with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.
  
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday...

Upper level troughing will continue to move to the east today and
Tuesday. The surface low pressure system associated with this
trough will slowly move across the Canadian Prairies advecting in
high pressure behind it today and Tuesday. This will bring
slightly cooler temperatures in the 80s F and dry conditions. 

Starting Wednesday, upper level ridging builds in behind the
departing trough shifting high pressure to the east. This pattern
is expected to last through Friday bringing high temperatures in
the high 80s to low 90s F and periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Thursday is expected to bring the best chance for
severe thunderstorms as southeast winds advect Gulf moisture into
Montana. It is too early to have specific details about the 
coverage and potential hazards of these storms. 

Ensemble systems are indicating that the earliest the upper level
ridging pattern could be broken is next weekend. While ridging
will be dominant over Montana during the middle to late week
period, persistent troughing will impact the Pacific Coast. 
Starting next weekend, models are indicating this trough may begin
to move inland displacing the ridge. This is highly uncertain at 
this time but it brings the potential for cooler temperatures by 
next Sunday. Torgerson 

.AVIATION...

Wildfire smoke is expected to move into Southeast Montana this
morning. Reductions to slant range visibility are possible. Smoke
impacts are largely expected west of Rosebud County. Reductions 
in flight category due to surface visibility reductions are 
unlikely. Locations from northern Rosebud County and areas near 
the Dakotas border will experience 20-30 kt wind gusts this 
afternoon. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/084 059/090 062/093 062/090 062/089 060/083
    0/K 00/B    00/U    11/B    51/B    21/B    21/U
LVM 086 048/084 049/089 051/089 050/088 050/085 047/080
    0/K 01/U    11/U    43/T    52/T    22/W    32/W
HDN 088 054/086 055/092 060/095 059/092 059/091 056/085
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/B    31/B    21/B    21/U
MLS 086 058/084 054/087 060/093 064/092 062/090 059/084
    0/U 00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    21/B    31/U
4BQ 087 058/084 055/088 060/092 063/092 062/090 060/086
    0/U 10/B    00/U    01/B    20/B    21/B    21/U
BHK 087 052/083 048/086 052/091 058/092 057/090 055/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    41/B    22/T    32/W
SHR 086 054/083 051/087 054/091 056/089 056/088 053/084
    0/B 02/T    01/B    11/B    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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