FXUS65 KBYZ 232207 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 407 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong wind gusts 55-65 mph the main threat. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .UPDATE... Severe Thunderstorm Watches has been issued for south central and southeast MT into this evening. The forecast remains on track. STP && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday... A filling upper low tracking through the Pac NW will continue to slide east along the US Canada border, working to break down the upper ridge over the region today into Monday. An associated cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon and evening. Areas generally west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form out ahead of and with the front, starting over the west early this afternoon, spreading east into the evening hours. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, 30-40kts of 0-6KM shear, and steep lapse rates should allow a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Risk Level 2 of 5 for severe storms over central and western areas, with a marginal risk elsewhere. The main threat with these storms is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and hail greater than 1 inch. Brief heavy rain is also possible with thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions settle into the area for Monday, with temperatures down into the 80s for most locations. Breezy northwest winds of 15-30 mph near the Dakotas border and afternoon humidity down into the upper teens and 20s percent will bring locally elevated fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances (10-40% chance) for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. Highs are forecast to range from the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Winds will remain gusty (up to 25 kts) out of the west for most of the region (including KBIL) through 06z today. The main concern is the development of TS around 20z over the mountains near KLVM and then they push east. TEMPO lines were included in KBIL/KLVM for wind gusts with these storms up to 50 kts, although it is not out of the question to see a gust as high as 60 kts with the strongest storm today. KSHR and SE Montana have less of a likelihood of seeing these storms or impactful winds so they have PROB30 lines for these storms. That is only due to the lower confidence / coverage of the storms as they progress eastwards, if a storm does impact any terminal gusts over 40 kts are possible. Overnight tonight there could be some patchy FG but there is low confidence in this. Even if it were to occur, it will be very localized in the fog prone areas. Mountains will be partially obscured through 08z. VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Slant range visibility may be see minor impacts due to smoke. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 062/088 060/085 061/090 063/093 064/090 062/089 3/T30/K 00/U 00/B 11/B 41/B 21/U LVM 089 049/086 049/084 051/089 052/090 052/088 050/086 6/T 20/K 02/T 22/T 32/T 41/U 21/U HDN 097 059/088 055/087 056/092 060/095 061/091 059/091 3/T 30/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U MLS 096 063/086 058/085 056/087 061/093 064/091 061/089 1/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 21/B 4BQ 095 064/087 059/086 057/088 062/092 064/091 062/090 2/T 20/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B BHK 093 060/088 053/085 050/086 053/090 057/091 056/089 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/T 33/T SHR 092 057/087 054/084 052/088 055/091 057/089 055/088 3/T 30/U 02/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620 in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-171-173-235. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 in effect until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 34-40-42-56-63>68-141-170-172-228. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings