FXUS65 KBYZ 191910 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 110 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation to the area Wednesday into Thursday (60 to 100 percent, greatest over south- central Montana and north-central Wyoming). - 50-90% chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan. Snow levels as low as 6 kft. High chance for greater than 6 inches of snow in the mountains. - Increasing temperatures starting Friday with 80s F Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A weather system will impact the region Wednesday and Thursday. It begins late Wednesday with the passage of a cold front bringing Pacific Moisture. Northeast winds will create favorable conditions for mountains and foothills locations. Cross sections indicate deep moisture and decent omega, further increasing precipitation potential. Precipitation chances of 80-100% for the mountains and foothills decrease to the east with locations such as Miles City and Baker having the lowest chances (60%). This system will also bring thunderstorm chances of 15-30% Wednesday and Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. Locations west of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan have a 40-80% chance of getting greater than 0.5 inches of precipitation with locations locations east of Rosebud County having a <20% chance. Snow levels are expected to be in the 6,000-7,000 ft range keeping snow accumulations in the mountains. The Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains have a 50-100% chance of getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall but generally a <20% chance for greater than 12 inches. The Bighorn Mountains have a 50-80% chance for getting greater than 6 inches of snowfall and 30-50% chance for greater than 12 inches over the highest peaks. The highest snowfall totals will occur on north and east facing slopes. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s F will cool into the 50s and 60s F Thursday. Friday through Sunday will see increasing heights leading to warming temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures in the 60s F Friday increase into the 80s F Sunday and Monday. More uncertainty enters the forecast early next week as ensemble systems indicate the potential for troughing to impact the region bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Torgerson .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Light southerly winds will become more westerly after 00z. In the next few hours SHRA will start to move into the forecast area (KLVM/K6S0) before spreading eastwards to KBIL around 00z. KSHR and KMLS may see a shower between 00z and 12z however, there is a low (20%) chance. All sites should stay VFR, but a brief reduction down to MVFR with any passing shower is possible. A brief push of prevailing northwesterly winds, including at KBIL, is possible between 22 and 06z with the FROPA. While unlikely, a chance of a stray lightning strike connot be ruled out. (Highest chance for KBIL/KLVM/K3HT and nearby sites.) Mountains will be come partially obscured after 22z. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/069 043/056 039/070 044/079 050/084 053/088 053/082 04/T +8/W 00/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B LVM 036/063 036/054 033/067 039/076 045/081 048/083 047/075 13/T +9/T 00/B 01/B 11/U 11/N 14/T HDN 036/071 041/057 036/070 040/079 046/084 049/088 050/083 01/B 89/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 01/U 11/B MLS 039/072 043/062 040/069 041/078 048/084 050/088 053/084 01/B 45/W 21/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 10/N 4BQ 039/071 042/060 039/067 041/076 047/083 050/088 054/084 00/B 26/T 41/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B BHK 036/072 038/064 037/067 040/075 046/083 049/088 052/084 01/B 36/T 53/W 10/U 00/U 10/U 10/N SHR 031/066 036/050 032/065 035/074 040/081 043/086 045/081 01/B 3+/T 52/W 00/U 01/U 00/U 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings