FXUS65 KBYZ 190208 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 808 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze tonight into Tuesday morning. Make sure to protect sensitive vegetation. - Weather system brings the chance (40-90%) of precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels around 6,500 ft. - Moderate chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation over south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. - Warmer but still unsettled weather continues into the weekend. && .UPDATE... The showers impacting the mountains and foothills of south- central Montana and the plains of far eastern Montana this evening will gradually taper off over the next few hours before coming to an end by tonight. Temperatures tonight will be cold in the mid 20s to low 30s. With this, make sure to protect sensitive vegetation. Patchy fog is also possible by Tuesday morning over the plains, especially where precipitation recently occurred (up to a 20 percent chance). Tuesday will then be a mostly dry day as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s. With that said, during the afternoon and evening, a few light showers are possible (~15 percent chance) with some mid- level moisture and instability. However, dry air near the surface may favor virga over precipitation making it the surface. This may also produce some brief erratic winds with gusts up to 30 mph. Another weather system will then move into and through the area Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated chances of precipitation to many locations. See the discussion below for more information. Arends && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday morning with temperatures in the mid to high 20s F for most locations. Act now to protect sensitive plants. Temperatures increase into the 60s Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will see a 500 mb wave impact the region. Models continue to indicate this wave diving further south with increasing precipitation values. A cold front will move through the region late Wednesday bringing 40-90% precipitation chances late Wednesday through Thursday with chances decreasing from west to east. Weak low pressure over Northeast Wyoming/Western Dakotas is expected to turn 700 mb winds northeasterly bringing good upslope for foothills locations. Ensembles show that the farther the trough digs south and the farther west the trough sets up, the more precipitation the region can expect to receive. The NBM is giving locations west of Rosebud County a 40-90% chance of getting greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation with the highest chances in the mountains and foothills. Locations from Rosebud County and east have a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.25 inches. Precipitation type will be snow in the mountains and rain for the lower elevations with snow levels around 6,500 ft. Given the favorable setup for the Beartooth foothills there is a 50% chance for getting greater than 0.75 inches of precipitation. This could cause concern for the East Side burn scar. Storms are not expected and the precipitation is expected to be long duration acting to limit any burn scar risks. Snow levels will also be important, if snow levels set up lower there will be no risk to the burn scar. Temperatures are expected to be in 70s F Wednesday before cooling into the 60s F Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday will see temperatures increase into the 70s and 80s F with dry conditions. Torgerson .AVIATION... Isolated rain and snow showers will continue to decrease this afternoon and evening. MVFR to local IFR conditions are possible with the showers. Expect occasional mountain obscuration due to mountain snow through the evening. As skies clear and winds decrease overnight, some patchy fog is possible (20% chance) for central and eastern valleys, including near KSHR and KMLS. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 030/067 042/071 043/061 040/068 043/079 049/085 052/088 01/U 11/B 87/T 21/B 00/U 01/U 01/U LVM 026/062 036/065 036/057 034/066 038/075 045/081 047/083 12/W 23/T 98/T 21/B 10/U 11/U 11/N HDN 026/067 036/073 041/061 037/069 040/078 046/085 049/088 01/U 10/B 57/T 31/B 10/U 01/U 01/U MLS 030/065 040/073 044/065 040/069 042/077 047/083 051/087 00/U 10/B 44/W 21/B 10/U 01/U 10/U 4BQ 029/062 039/072 042/064 040/066 042/076 047/083 051/087 00/U 00/U 16/T 42/W 10/U 01/U 00/U BHK 028/060 036/073 039/066 037/066 040/075 046/083 049/086 20/U 00/B 25/T 32/W 20/U 01/U 00/U SHR 024/060 031/067 036/055 033/064 035/074 040/082 043/086 00/U 01/B 39/T 43/W 11/U 01/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings