FXUS65 KBYZ 181853 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1253 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze Tuesday morning with temperatures in the mid to high 20s F. Make sure to protect sensitive vegetation. - Another weather system brings the chance (40-90%) of precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels around 6,500 ft. - 50% chance for getting greater than 0.75 inches of precipitation for the Beartooth foothills. Possible impacts to the East Side burn scar. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday morning with temperatures in the mid to high 20s F for most locations. Act now to protect sensitive plants. Temperatures increase into the 60s Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will see a 500 mb wave impact the region. Models continue to indicate this wave diving further south with increasing precipitation values. A cold front will move through the region late Wednesday bringing 40-90% precipitation chances late Wednesday through Thursday with chances decreasing from west to east. Weak low pressure over Northeast Wyoming/Western Dakotas is expected to turn 700 mb winds northeasterly bringing good upslope for foothills locations. Ensembles show that the farther the trough digs south and the farther west the trough sets up, the more precipitation the region can expect to receive. The NBM is giving locations west of Rosebud County a 40-90% chance of getting greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation with the highest chances in the mountains and foothills. Locations from Rosebud County and east have a 20-40% chance for greater than 0.25 inches. Precipitation type will be snow in the mountains and rain for the lower elevations with snow levels around 6,500 ft. Given the favorable setup for the Beartooth foothills there is a 50% chance for getting greater than 0.75 inches of precipitation. This could cause concern for the East Side burn scar. Storms are not expected and the precipitation is expected to be long duration acting to limit any burn scar risks. Snow levels will also be important, if snow levels set up lower there will be no risk to the burn scar. Temperatures are expected to be in 70s F Wednesday before cooling into the 60s F Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday will see temperatures increase into the 70s and 80s F with dry conditions. Torgerson .AVIATION... Isolated rain and snow showers will continue to decrease this afternoon and evening. MVFR to local IFR conditions are possible with the showers. Expect occasional mountain obscuration due to mountain snow through the evening. As skies clear and winds decrease overnight, some patchy fog is possible (20% chance) for central and eastern valleys, including near KSHR and KMLS. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050 030/067 042/071 043/061 040/068 043/079 049/085 1/E 00/U 11/B 87/T 21/B 00/U 01/U LVM 048 026/062 036/065 036/057 034/066 038/075 045/081 4/W 10/B 13/T 98/T 21/B 10/U 11/U HDN 050 026/067 036/073 041/061 037/069 040/078 046/085 1/E 00/U 00/B 57/T 31/B 10/U 01/U MLS 048 030/064 040/073 044/065 040/069 042/077 047/083 1/E 00/U 00/B 44/W 21/B 10/U 01/U 4BQ 045 029/062 039/072 042/064 040/066 042/076 047/083 3/W 00/U 00/U 16/T 42/W 10/U 01/U BHK 046 028/060 036/073 039/066 037/066 040/075 046/083 4/W 20/U 00/B 25/T 32/W 20/U 01/U SHR 043 024/060 031/067 036/055 033/064 035/074 040/082 9/W 00/U 01/B 39/T 43/W 11/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings