FXUS61 KBUF 200137 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 937 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible. 2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening into overnight, with a few strong storms and an isolated severe storm possible. A surface low, crossing Quebec tonight, will drag its cold front across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to 3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, strong to isolated severe storms will spread from west to east this evening. Earlier CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially from the late afternoon), combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear supported strong to severe wind gusts upstream of WNY, with some of those stronger winds continuing this evening at times. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a Marginal Risk (Risk level 1 of 5), with the best window for strong storms occurring through 1-2AM tonight. While the risk for strong to a few severe thunderstorms will continue this evening, thunderstorms currently across WNY are starting to weaken. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of passing cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the forecast area through the overnight. Some gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible within showers, especially along and north of I90. Reductions in flight cats will be possible in heavier showers to IFR VSBYs. Outside of showers, mainly VFR CIGs through the evening will lower to MVFR and then IFR through daybreak as a cold front crosses the region. Higher terrain LIFR will be possible late tonight at times. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region behind the passing cold front. This will result in improving flight conditions after daybreak on Wednesday, with all terminals expected to be VFR by mid/late morning. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... Winds will shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing gusty winds. Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...EAJ