FXUS61 KBUF 162329 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 729 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for counties where the growing season remains from late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will continue to advance east across the Great Lakes through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A strong cold front crossing the region will exit by mid afternoon. The better moisture and dynamics will be out ahead of the front, but a strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain and showers to continue this afternoon and evening in wake of the cold front. The strongest winds have already occurred across the area, but westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing further this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. A freeze watch has been issued for counties where the growing season remains. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds into Western and Central NY from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend NW'erly to N'erly around 5 to 15 knots through ~20Z/Sat and gust up to ~20 knots at times through ~13Z/Sat. After ~20Z/Sat, our regional surface winds should become light and variable as the MSLP gradient relaxes significantly in response to the building ridge. Widespread ceilings in the 1kft to 3kft AGL range should persist through late Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, isolated to scattered stratocumuli with bases near 3kft to 4kft AGL are forecast through 00Z/Sun. Widespread light rain with mainly VFR visibility, associated with the upper-reaches of a departing cold front, continues to exit our region generally from west to east through ~04Z/Sat. Behind the widespread rain, light to moderate lake-effect rain showers are expected over and generally SE or SSE of the eastern Great Lakes this evening into Saturday morning. During the same time period, NW'erly to NNW'erly upslope flow-induced rain showers are possible along the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. These lake-effect and upslope flow-induced rain showers may mix with or change to wet snow at times between ~07Z/Sat and ~13Z/Sat, and should result in periodic MVFR to perhaps IFR visibility. All of this precip should end from west to east between ~12Z/Sat and ~15Z/Sat due, in part to drier air that will overspread our region from the NNW. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR visibility are expected through 00Z/Sun. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...Dry weather and VFR are likely. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Elevated west and northwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue on both lakes through Saturday morning, before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...TMA