FXUS61 KBUF 161729 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Freeze Watch issued for counties where the growing season remains from late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. 2) Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. 3) An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain and gusty winds through this evening. A sharp mid level trough will continue to advance east across the Great Lakes through tonight. An associated surface low will steadily deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. A strong cold front crossing the region will exit by mid afternoon. The better moisture and dynamics will be out ahead of the front, but a strong right entrance region jet dynamics will lag behind the passage of the cold front, allowing for periods of light rain and showers to continue this afternoon and evening in wake of the cold front. The strongest winds have already occurred across the area, but westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing further this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder tonight through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop tonight in the wake of the departing low, with 850 mb temperatures dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes tonight, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late tonight through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 30s on the lake plains and 20s well inland Saturday night, with frost/freeze conditions likely. A freeze watch has been issued for counties where the growing season remains. KEY MESSAGE 3...An extended period of dry and warmer weather begins Sunday and lasts most of next week. High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to southern New England Sunday, with southwesterly return flow quickly removing the brief shot of colder air. Temperatures will rebound into the 55 to 60 degree range by afternoon following the cold start. A strong ridge surface and aloft will then take up residence early next week across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while a slow moving cutoff low remains parked off the Carolina coast much of the week. This pattern will support dry weather most, or even all of next week with abundant sunshine and temperatures a little above average. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Passing surface low pressure system across southern Canada this morning, is dragging its warm and cold frontal boundaries across the western and north central New York regions as of noon. As a response, multiple waves of showers result, with the heaviest rainfall now exiting east of the region. Additional showers will persist in the wake of the front this afternoon. Overall, expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings, supporting MVFR conditions to persist across the lower terrain to IFR across the higher elevations. Gusty winds will persist this afternoon despite the cold frontal passage. Speaking of which, with the cold front now to the east of KROC, winds have shifted to the west/northwest. This wind shift will soon happen at KART as the front is knocking on their western door. Wind gusts will continue to range in the 20 to 30 knot range. Tonight, colder air will spill into the region and result in strong lake induced instability to develop. However, with a rapidly drying airmass overhead, expect a muted and brief lake response. Lake effect clouds will produce areas of MVFR CIGS overnight, with scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain from lake effect and upslope. It will become cold enough to allow some wet snowflakes to mix in very late tonight, mainly across higher terrain. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS and scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Steadily deepening low pressure will move down the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight to the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Elevated west and northwest winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue on both lakes through Saturday morning, before quickly diminishing Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Saturday morning on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NYZ001>005-010-011. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...EAL MARINE...TMA