FXUS64 KBRO 230349 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A strong 500 mb ridge will meander over southern New Mexico/western Texas and northern Mexico extending over Texas through late next week. This will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Southeast winds around 15 kts with some gusts around 20 kts prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon. Will continue to include a TEMPO at MFE between 10 to 14Z Sunday for a low chance of MVFR stratocumulus. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail along the lower Texas Coast through the period as high pressure continues across the Gulf. Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low seas are expected through late next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While we're likely to fall just short of Fire Danger conditions (i.e. 15-20+ 20 foot wind), we're on the razor's edge when considering pulse gusts. Unlike earlier this week, however, the gradient does slacken enough to keep even a reasonable worst-case gust factor to 25 mph along/east of IH-69C/US-281, and 20 mph to the west. But the combination of flash drought, the potential for afternoon RH to fall into the 15-25% range west of IH-69C/US 281 (and 25-35% east of there) as well as re-cured fuels based on visuals and the above-average evaporation rates are enough to keep the wildfire prevention message front and center. Burn bans remain in effect for all but Kenedy County, and just a spark combined with even a pulse gust could quickly turn into a wildfire that could spread fairly rapidly. Since late July, there were two large wildfires with nearly 1400 acres burned in western Brooks - an area that missed out on two rain events not too far away (southwestern Brooks). The last truly beneficial rain over a decent-sized area was on August 2...and those benefits are long dried up. Continue to promote wildfire safety and prevention until further notice.&& .CLIMATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 How hot, August? Through the 21st, ranking in the top two or three all-time for most available stations. Rival years include 2023 (tops for several locations) and 2009 (tops for McAllen). 2023 remains the hottest meteorological summer (June-August) and astronomical summer (June 21 - September 21, in general)...but 2026 is hot on its heels. Given the expected temperatures to remain around 3 degrees above average through the end of August, several locations may tie or even push ahead of 2023's benchmark. Here are the current stats for August, through the 21st: Location (since) August (Rank) Record (year) Brownsville (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023) McAllen (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009) Harlingen (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023) McCook (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998) Port Mansfield (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023) Rio Grande City (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)* Weslaco (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023) Raymondville (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 100 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 104 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 106 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 80 90 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...63-KC FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...52-Goldsmith