FXUS64 KBRO 191828
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
128 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Key Messages:

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across ALL of
  Deep South Texas late tonight into Wednesday morning. 

* Daily rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next week.

* Hot and humid conditions will continue this week with a Moderate 
  to Major Heat Risk today and tomorrow.

* A High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through this
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This week into next will feature multiple chances for showers and 
thunderstorms. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist into early 
next week, with multiple perturbations tracking over the region.
At the surface, ample moisture will be in place and pool ahead of
a stalled frontal boundary in central Texas. Combined, this will 
lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will 
remain extremely high across the area at 1.75-2.5 inches through 
the week, which is well above normal, so any convection that does 
develop could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Tonight, there is a conditional threat for severe weather across
Deep South Texas and the Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL 
of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level of 1 of 5) of 
severe thunderstorms through tonight. A complex of thunderstorms 
will develop north of the region and move south/southeast late 
tonight into Wednesday morning. If this line holds together
through Deep South Texas and is severe, the main threats will be 
damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and large hail. Brief heavy 
rain will also be possible with this activity and could lead to 
localized ponding of water. The Storm Prediction Center keeps Deep
South Texas in a general risk of thunderstorms Wednesday and 
Thursday, though we can not rule out the potential for additional 
severe weather through the week. 

The Weather Prediction Center has placed Zapata, Jim Hogg, 
western Starr and northwestern Brooks counties in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, and all of
Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on 
Thursday though Saturday. Now through Sunday morning we are 
currently expecting generally 1 to 2 inches across the region with
localized areas of 3 to 4 inches. Areas that see multiple rounds 
of heavy thunderstorms could potentially see higher totals through
the weekend.

Outside of thunderstorm/rain chances, heat will be an additional 
weather headline through the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 
90s through Saturday. There is a a Moderate to Major Heat Risk today 
an tomorrow with a Minor to Moderate heat risk Thursday through next 
Tuesday.

At area beaches, there is a high risk of rip currents through 
this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

While VFR conditions will prevail at BRO and MFE there could be a
mix with MVFR before all aerodromes fall to MVFR this evening.
Southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 30 kts through this
afternoon before decreasing overnight. We are continuing to
watch for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to move through 
late tonight though there is still low confidence on exact timing 
and whether this activity will make it this far south, therefore 
have not introduced and TS in this TAF package. If showers and 
thunderstorms do make it this far south could see some brief 
IFR/LIFR, most likely near daybreak. We will likely see some 
lower visibility near daybreak regardless of precip but stay 
within MVFR guidelines.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Slightly adverse marine conditions continue on the Laguna Madre and 
Gulf Waters through tonight becoming more favorable through the rest 
of the forecast period. Ongoing shower and thunderstorms chances 
through the weekend may lead to localized higher winds and seas. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  92  80  91 /  10  10  10  30 
HARLINGEN               78  92  76  92 /  20  10  10  40 
MCALLEN                 79  94  78  92 /  30  20  20  50 
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  94  75  93 /  40  40  40  50 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  85  81  85 /  20  10  10  20 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  90  79  90 /  20  10  10  30 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68 
AVIATION...68