FXUS64 KBRO 170551 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1251 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 - Coolest airmass of the season arrives tonight and persist through Saturday night following the cold frontal passage; overnight lows tonight and Saturday night mainly in the 50s; high temperatures on Saturday only in the 70s. - Breezy north winds 15-25 mph gusting as high as 35 mph will continue through tonight before gradually subsiding on Saturday. - Combination of breezy winds and low relative humidity values will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Saturday; A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the inland portions of Deep South Texas from 11am to 8pm. - Dangerous or hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue into Sunday. - A warming trend develops next week with temperatures returning to warmer than normal levels; there is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Cool and dry air advection regime, courtesy of stiff blustery northerly winds 15-25 mph gusting as high as 40 mph and a broad 1035- 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system in the wake of the cold front, will usher in the coolest airmass of the season tonight through Saturday night. Temperatures at this hour have been falling and continue to fall with values currently in the mid 60s over parts of the Northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande Valley. Humidity levels have also fallen this evening with current dewpoint and relative humidity values in the 40s and 50s. Overnight low temperatures tonight are progged to be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the valley). Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight tonight before gradually diminishing during the day on Saturday. Despite the winds becoming lighter, they will be strong enough and when combined with the low relative humidities, will result in an elevated fire weather risk. Have issued a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for the inland portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from 11AM-8PM CDT Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to make it out of the 70s amid the continuation of cool and dry air advection on northerly winds. These highs on Saturday will be some 10-20F degrees below average. Saturday night will feature another cooler than normal night (similar to tonight) with light winds and mainly clear skies. Sunday through next week, a warming trend takes place as a 591 dam heat dome emerges overhead. Mid-upper 80s to low-mid 90s will arrive as early as Tuesday of next week in response the strengthening heat ridge. Main rain-free weather can be expected through next week. However, there could be a day or two where showers are possible (namely in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe). Currently, we have low- medium (20-40%) chances for rain Tuesday through Wednesday with the best chances being during the daytime and closer to the coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026 VFR is expected at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with diminishing winds and clearing skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Dangerous or hazardous marine and coastal conditions will continue into Sunday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters till 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory remain in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from till 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect till Sunday morning (at least). Sunday through the remainder of next week, adverse marine andcoastal conditions will prevail with mainly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Gulf Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 62 79 67 / 0 0 20 10 HARLINGEN 75 58 80 63 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 76 59 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 69 77 72 / 10 0 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 62 78 67 / 10 0 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ250-251-253>255- 353. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ351-354-355- 451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$