FXUS64 KBRO 160352 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1052 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A strong cold front will bring strong winds, and markedly cooler changes along with multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) Friday into the weekend. - Northerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph Friday into Saturday. - Medium (30-50%) rain shower chances on Friday along the cold front. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Major changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place in the next 12-24 hours across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Multiple weather hazards including a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory are in effect ahead of a strong cold front, which is now pushing through central Texas, that will sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The cold front will arrive over the Rio Grande Valley sometime during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will have enough time to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the valley before the cold front pushes through. Immediately behind the cold front is a strong, sprawling 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system. The combination of the cold front and Canadian High will result in tight isobars or an enhanced pressure gradient over the region. Ultimately, this will result in strong, stiff north winds developing Friday afternoon. Many computer models continue to show north winds 15-30 mph with peak gusts as high as 45-55+ mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday and Saturday for much of Deep South Texas to take into account the strong winds. These strong wind will result in multiple coastal and marine hazards Friday through Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). Drier air will build into the region behind the fropa on Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop through the day on Friday/Friday night with little to no recovery. Due to the combination of lower relative humidity values and strong winds, we've decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Friday/Friday night. Another Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday. Any rain showers are expected to be light to moderate. Much cooler temperatures will develop Friday night through Saturday night with lows in the 50s most places. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rebound back to warmer than normal levels (high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s) Tuesday through Friday of next week as a 591 hpa heat dome builds over the region. There is a chance for additional showers Monday night into Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Through 00z Thursday....Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Late morning/early afternoon on Friday, between 16z-19z/Fri, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Upon the arrival of this cold front, winds will shift out of the north and steadily strengthen through the afternoon into the evening hours. Furthermore, clouds will increase and lower in elevation as the day wears on. While mainly VFR conditions can be expected, there could be some clouds dropping into MVFR territory. Light to moderate (stratiform) rain showers are also possible along the cold front on Friday. Have introduced Prob30 groups between 18z-22z/Fri for all of the TAF sites to acknowledge the potential for showers developing along the cold front. Southeast winds 10-15 kts with isolated gusts up to 20 kts or so will diminish this evening and trend towards light and variable to calm. During the mid to late morning hours on Friday, in response and ahead of the aforementioned cold front, winds will shift out of the north with speeds between 10-20 kts. Winds will steadily undergo strengthening as the day wears on. During the afternoon into the evening hours stiff northerly winds will increase 20-25 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts. These winds will challenge east-west oriented runways on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front will bring strong winds to the region Friday into Saturday. These winds will result in multiple coastal/marine hazards Friday into Sunday (at least). A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 10AM Friday to 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory are in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from 1PM Friday to 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Friday morning to Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 88 61 73 / 0 40 20 0 HARLINGEN 71 89 58 75 / 0 30 0 0 MCALLEN 74 90 60 76 / 0 40 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 87 58 75 / 0 50 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 67 73 / 0 50 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 62 73 / 0 40 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250- 251-253>255-353. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351- 354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455. Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma