FXUS65 KBOU 231808 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1208 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 FXUS65 KBOU 231138 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 538 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today, with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances should stay east of the urban corridor. - Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains after yesterday's severe storms lasted well into the evening. These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low- level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however, the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8 to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s before storms start and bring some heat relief. It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn't change significantly outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions gradually work their way back for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds have turned northward in the last couple of hours, and should remain north/northeast until storms start to move through the area. Model guidance continues to show convection initiating around 21Z, so we've kept that as the start time for the TEMPO; however, given that this morning's inversion has disappeared in the recent ACARS soundings, and cumulus has started building over the foothills, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some showers and wind gusts as early as 20Z at KDEN. Gusty outflows with shifting winds (30- 40kts) remain more of a threat than precipitation over the TAF sites. Recent CAMs runs also keep showers lingering as long as 03- 04Z, so we've opted to extend the PROB30 another hour to account for that. Clouds should clear up and winds should shift towards drainage after any lingering showers/outflows move out of the area, sometime between 03-05Z. Winds will then turn back to the north in the morning, around15Z. Another round of showers/storms/outflows is expected at about the same time tomorrow, starting around 21-22Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...AGS