FXUS65 KBOU 161746
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1146 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry/sunny weather today with another freeze north and east of 
  the Denver metro area tonight. 

- Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next
  week. 

- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing
  chance of showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Recent obs show temperatures starting to drop over parts of the 
eastern plains, and most of the cloud cover from earlier today has 
cleared out. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am Friday for 
the eastern plains & I-25 corridor, where lows tonight are expected 
to drop into the upper 20s-low 30s. Winds should stay light across 
the area overnight, with some breezier conditions (gusts of about 15-
20mph) in the northeasternmost plains.

Cooler temperatures persist Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 
50s across the plains & I-25 corridor. Downsloping winds should keep 
lows tomorrow night above freezing for most of the foothills, while 
the northern and easternmost plains should again see lows in the 
upper 20s-low 30s. Despite the good model agreement in below 
freezing temperatures across the plains Friday night, we have 
decided to hold off for now on issuing any frost or freeze products 
until we know tonight's low temperatures. Should a killing freeze 
hit tonight (low temps <= 28F), we would not issue another product; 
however, if lows don't quite reach that 28 degrees or less 
threshold, we may be looking at another frost/freeze product.
 
Temperatures warm back up on Saturday as a ridge moves into the 
area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s on Saturday as the 
ridge axis moves across the state, with southwest flow dominating on 
the upstream side of the ridge by Sunday, keeping temps on the 
warmer side through the first half of next week and pulling in some 
mid-level moisture. While conditions should stay dry over the plains 
and urban corridor, we can't rule out a few afternoon rain/snow 
showers over the higher terrain Sunday through Wednesday. 

Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions bring in 
our next trough Thursday or Friday. This far out, though, the timing 
of this system is highly uncertain, as is the location of the cutoff 
low/trough axis. We'll see how the models trend and see if there's 
any better agreement from run to run and across models as we get 
closer to the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A beautiful fall day is in store for today with no aviation 
impacts. Light SE winds will develop at the sites this afternoon 
before slowly turning clockwise this evening to drainage winds. 
KBJC should remain a little more variable through the night 
compared to the other sites. Towards the morning (~14-17z), winds 
will turn variable before settling into another light E/SE flow in
the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for 
COZ050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...Schnell