FXUS65 KBOU 151704 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1104 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight. - Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night. - Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week. - Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds were starting to break up, and clearing will continue through the rest of the day. Cold/dry advection will continue through tonight, leading to the season's first freeze across most if not all of the plains and I-25 Corridor. That's despite a light breeze that will remain over the eastern plains. We expect overnight lows to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s across the plains, with upper 20s and lower 30s along the I-25 Corridor (warmest over the western Denver suburbs). Despite a return to full sunshine on Friday, temperatures will remain quite chilly and several degrees below normal. High temperatures will stick mostly in the mid to upper 50s over the plains. It will be cold again Friday night, with another freeze and mid to upper 20s over the low lying areas of the plains, but some warming along the downslope areas of the I-25 Corridor. This weekend will turn warm again as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Central Rockies Saturday, and then warm southwest flow occurs on the back side of the ridge Sunday. Highs should mostly reach the 70s across the plains. In the mountains, we can't rule out a weak shower or two Sunday afternoon as a touch of mid level moisture returns. Southwest flow strengthens through the middle of next week as a deep trough of low pressure moves down the Pacific Coast. That keeps us in a warmer than normal pattern, but a chance of showers will return mostly for the high country. We are watching the arrival of the next storm system for the latter portions of the week, when the West Coast trough pushes east across the Rockies. Ensemble systems overall keep the highest probabilities (50-70%) of 1" or more of liquid equivalent from the northern mountains into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and remain relatively light over the I-25 Corridor and plains. However, there are a few outliers that bear watching as the trough does have an opportunity to become negatively tilted. It's just that for now the majority of the ensembles support the storm track and heavier precipitation swath staying just staying just to our north. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings this morning are bouncing between LIFR, IFR, and MVFR. Fog seems to have mostly cleared the area, with all TAF sites at P6SM this morning. Ceilings will continue to bounce between flight categories through the morning, with KDEN remaining ILS. Light showers are moving into the TAF sites, with showers on and off through roughly 17Z or 18Z today. Skies will clear behind the showers bringing VFR and visuals back to the TAF sites by the early afternoon. Winds will increase out of the north starting around 14Z, with gusts of 24kts to 30kts. Winds will weaken between 22Z and 00Z. Winds will become light and variable for the evening. Models are hinting at the potential for some stronger winds around 06Z from the northeast, but there's quite a bit of uncertainty on if those winds will actually mix down to the surface or not. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...AP