FXUS64 KBMX 232352
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

- Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through this 
  week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees.

- Storms: There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe
  thunderstorms across southern portions of Alabama both this
  afternoon and evening and again for Monday afternoon and
  evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough
lifting across the northeast as an upper level ridge expands out
to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped
across the southern half of the state. This boundary is likely to
linger close to the northern Gulf coast for the next couple of
days. Meanwhile, a few impulses will rotate through the northwest
flow aloft, helping to trigger a few bouts of convection,
generally during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest
chances for convection through mid week will be to the south of
the boundary as a moisture convergence axis becomes established.
Drier air filtering in across our northern areas will help keep
rain chances at bay. To the south of the front, ample
instability, high DCAPE and mid-level dry air will continue to
promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storm. Therefore,
SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms across the southern half of the state through Tuesday.  

By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes 
region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime 
Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate 
(30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work 
week. 

High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to 
mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, 
generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover 
next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper
80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a moderate 
heat risk for most through the next week.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. Only a few
showers and thunderstorms remain on radar. Only confident enough
for a PROB30 mention for MGM through 3z ATTM, but will keep a
close eye on the rest. Best chances for convection on Monday will
be across the south and west portions of C AL with our surface 
boundary situated from NW to SE across the southern third of AL. 
Thus, only confident enough for mentions at TCL/MGM during the day
as they will be closer to the boundary. Outside of storms, winds 
should be light/variable tonight and WNW-NW 4-8kts with mixing on 
Monday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air may be slow to vacate the area with one more day
possible for lower minimum relative humidity values (35 to 45%) 
for most locations on Monday. However, wind speeds are expected 
to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather 
concerns. Moisture gradually begins as we head into midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  91  66  92 /  10   0   0  10 
Anniston    66  90  66  91 /  10  10   0   0 
Birmingham  70  92  70  92 /  10  20  10  10 
Tuscaloosa  72  95  72  94 /  10  30  20  20 
Calera      70  93  70  92 /  20  30  10  10 
Auburn      72  91  71  90 /  20  20  10   0 
Montgomery  73  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  10 
Troy        72  95  70  93 /  20  30  20  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...08