FXUS64 KBMX 200407
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1107 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of
  the week, with the greatest chance for heavy rainfall in
  northwest areas.

- Muggy conditions and high temperatures will create a minor to
  moderate daily heat risk across Central Alabama.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing off to our west
ahead of an approaching cold front. CAMs continue to hint at this
activity dissipating as it nears the MS/AL stateline. If any of
this activity does make it into the area, it will be across our
northwest areas. The aforementioned front will stall across the
state tomorrow and linger through the end of the work week.
Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will guide several
H5 impulses through the region. This will lead to elevated
chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. Each
day will feature diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The majority of
this activity will be pulse-like storms as shear profiles are not
too impressive. Greatest chances each day will be across our
northern areas where low level moisture convergence will be
maximized along the stalled boundary. The boundary retreats back
to the north over the weekend, leaving a plume of moist air in
place across the region. Bouts of H5 energy will continue to
stream across the southeast, leading to increased chances for
showers and storms daily. Select forecast soundings depict a
nearly saturated atmospheric column and a deep warm cloud depth.
This would help promote periods of heavy rainfall at times.
Rainfall amounts have trended up recently with 2-3" forecast
across our northwest areas. Areas back to our southeast will see
around 1" or less. With that said, pockets of higher amounts are
likely, especially if these storms turn into efficient rainfall
producers. Latest LREF guidance suggests a low (20-30%) chance
for amounts over 3".

Increased cloud cover will knock a few degrees off our highs for
the rest of the week with temperatures generally settling into
the mid 80s daily. Those across our southeastern areas will
remain near 90. Lows look to fall into the mid 60s for most.
Muggy and warm conditions will lead to a minor to moderate heat
risk daily across Central Alabama. This would primarily affect
those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without
cooling/hydration.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout this TAF cycle. Light and
variable winds tonight will increase out of the south through the
day tomorrow, generally from 6-10 knots. Latest CAMs continue to
hint at isolated convection developing during the afternoon hours
Wednesday. Therefore, a PROB30 for -TSRA has been introduced from
roughly 18Z - 00Z.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A stalled cold front and continued bouts of upper level energy
will keep rain chances elevated through the end of the week.
MinRH values will generally remain over 50% daily. Elevated fire
weather concerns are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  87  64  84 /   0  60  50  70 
Anniston    66  86  64  84 /   0  60  50  50 
Birmingham  70  87  67  85 /  10  20  50  60 
Tuscaloosa  70  87  68  86 /  10  20  50  60 
Calera      68  89  66  86 /   0  20  40  50 
Auburn      68  89  68  87 /   0  50  30  30 
Montgomery  70  89  68  88 /  10  40  40  30 
Troy        69  89  68  88 /  10  50  40  20 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo