FXUS64 KBMX 170015
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

- Fall Weather: A cold front will continue moving through the
  southeast counties of Central Alabama this evening, bringing 
  cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area behind it 
  for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

A strong cold front is expected to move through the area today.
Winds are already shifting to the NW in NW portions of AL here
around noon. We're not expecting much in the way of rainfall with
this, though a few sprinkles can't be ruled out. The main impact
is going to be gusty winds this afternoon and through much of the
day tomorrow as the front moves through. This will be some of the
coldest temperatures so far this year with lows Saturday dropping
into the upper 40s to near 50, then dropping to the low to mid
40s on Sunday and Monday mornings. Daytime highs should rebound
quite a bit, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s for overall mild
Fall conditions this weekend.

This trough that's moving through develops into a cut-off low
along the Atlantic Coast Sunday into Monday as ridging builds in
to our west. This will generally lead to continued dry weather
with northerly to northwesterly flow. We'll gradually see a
warming trend through the remainder of the week with mostly clear
skies and ample sunshine, though overnight lows will remain in
the mid to upper 40 to near 50 through Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026

A few MVFR cigs may occur this evening as well as a few light
showers as the last bit of moisture moves through with and right
behind the cold front. NW-N wind 10-18kts with higher gusts are at
all sites except for AUO. The front is near them and they are just
shifting with lighter winds, but they should pick up shortly.
Gusty NRLY winds are expected for during the day on Saturday.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and
evening. A much drier air mass builds into the region this
weekend and will persist through the upcoming week. Winds will be
strong tonight and through much of tomorrow afternoon with 20ft
winds in the 10-15 mph range and gusts up to 25 mph. RHs drop to
the low 30% range in western portions of Central AL, with the
eastern half of the area dropping just below 40%. This keeps us
out of critical Red Flag Warning criteria, but conditions are
notably dry and windy on Saturday, so outdoor burning is
discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     47  66  41  68 /  20   0   0   0 
Anniston    47  65  42  69 /  20   0   0   0 
Birmingham  48  65  44  68 /  20   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  49  68  45  71 /  20   0   0   0 
Calera      48  65  44  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Auburn      50  67  47  66 /  20   0   0   0 
Montgomery  50  69  47  69 /  20   0   0   0 
Troy        48  68  46  67 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...25/Owen
AVIATION...08