FXUS64 KBMX 151759
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

- Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal through
  Friday, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday
  night into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy
  conditions to the area for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

Near record high temperatures remain in the forecast for the next
two days, as the region remains situated under a stout ridge at
the surface, and the upper-levels. Thankfully, this ridging
pattern will begin to break down into Friday evening, as a very
deep trough and cold front begin to move SE through the Midwest.
Winds ahead of, and behind this cold front will be rather strong,
as the pressure gradient becomes quite tight. Sustained winds
through the weekend will range between 10-15 MPH, with gusts over
25+ MPH at times.

It's these stiff winds that will quickly usher in much cooler
weather, with overnight lows on Friday dropping into the mid-40s
and low-50s. Highs through the weekend will generally range in
the 60's, with lows generally ranging 40's. By Monday,
temperatures will begin to slowly rebound, as weak upper-level
ridging begins to reestablish itself off to our west. Thankfully,
this rise in temperature is expected to be gradual, with only
upper-70s expected by the middle of next week. Limited rainfall
is expected the next seven days as well, with only low shower
chances on Friday ahead of the passing cold front due to limited
moisture.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026

Under a persistent surface ridge, VFR conditions are anticipated
for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through
the end of the week, with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range
for many locations. A cold front will move through the area
Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall,
and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Thu Oct. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881

Fri Oct. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  84  47  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Anniston    63  84  48  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Birmingham  64  84  49  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Tuscaloosa  63  85  50  68 /   0  20   0   0 
Calera      63  84  49  65 /   0  20  10   0 
Auburn      64  84  52  67 /   0  20   0   0 
Montgomery  64  86  52  69 /   0  20  10   0 
Troy        63  85  51  68 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/