FXUS64 KBMX 150455
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

- Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week,
  with medium to high chances of record high temperatures.

- Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday
  into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy
  conditions to the area for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026


This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX
Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary
will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day
Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and
the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is
expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with
another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday
this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper
flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its
arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the
help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday
afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. 

However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few
max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where
max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times
NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into
Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. 
Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for
all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the
weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our
flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry. 

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface
ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and generally dry conditions are expected to continue 
through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% 
range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area
Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, 
and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Thu Oct. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881

Fri Oct. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  89  60  84 /   0   0   0  20 
Anniston    61  89  62  84 /   0   0   0  20 
Birmingham  64  89  64  84 /   0   0   0  20 
Tuscaloosa  61  92  62  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Calera      61  89  62  84 /   0   0   0  20 
Auburn      63  88  63  84 /   0   0   0  20 
Montgomery  61  89  63  86 /   0   0   0  20 
Troy        61  88  62  85 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08