FXUS63 KBIS 161725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low humidity and increasing southerly winds will result in
  near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening over far southwest North Dakota.

- Dry and mild over most locations this weekend through the
  middle of next week.

- Unsettled weather possibly returns late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Quiet weather and clear skies are found over all of western and
central North Dakota at the time of this mid day update. South
to southwest winds are beginning to develop as the pressure
gradient tightens up over the northern Plains, and are expected
to become breezy with sustained speeds up to 15 to 20 MPH and 
gusts up to 30 MPH this afternoon. The forecast remains in good
shape.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

It's a cold morning across western and central North Dakota, with 
some locations over western North Dakota having dropped as low as 15 
degrees overnight. More broadly, lows have been in the lower 20s to 
lower 30s across much of the forecast area, with all but the far 
southern James River Valley dropping to or below freezing. The 
Freeze Warning across the west and much of central North Dakota has 
been extended through 10Z (10 AM CDT / 09 AM MDT) this morning, and 
will be allowed to expire on time as temperatures have begun rising 
following the sun. Otherwise, no major adjustments to the forecast 
were performed at this time. 

UPDATE
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Going forecast remains in good shape as northwest winds continue
to diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Current surface analysis places low over the eastern Great Lakes
region while high settles through the eastern Montana/Wyoming
and the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough over
the upper Midwest, while ridge stretches from the northern
Sierra northward into the Canadian Rockies. Over our area, winds
continue to gradually diminish from west to east with the high
sliding through. In addition, where winds have tapered off and
skies have cleared over our northern/western areas, temperatures 
have dipped below freezing, thus the Freeze Warning remains in 
places.

For today, surface high settles southeast with return flow
setting up over western parts of our area, with southerly winds
increasing. Upper ridge pushes east as a notable wave over the
northern Pacific approaches shore. This will bring clearing
skies and dry conditions to our area. Over far southwest North
Dakota, humidity values are expected to dip into the 20s, which
combined with the expected southerly winds will result in near
critical fire weather conditions.

On Saturday, upper ridge pushes over our area while
aforementioned Pacific wave quickly passes over the Canadian
Rockies pushing into the western Canadian Prairies late day.
Surface low closes off over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan in
response, with winds shifting southwesterly over our area. 
Temperatures will climb to about 10 to 20 degrees above average,
warmest over the southwest where highs in the mid 70s are 
expected, with mainly lower 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. 

Upper wave continues its eastward push flattening out the ridge,
while a modest cold front passes through our area as surface low
works its way towards Hudson Bay late Saturday night into early
Sunday. Though conditions remain dry, temperatures will be
cooler with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. 

Zonal flow remains in place to start the work week, with flow
turning southwesterly towards mid-week as a Pacific low drops
down along the West Coast. Conditions remain dry, with a very gradual
warming trend over our area. Guidancethen suggests that the low
shifts easterly and opens up late week. Though the timing of
this is a bit variable, it does bring precipitation chances to
the forecast late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected throughout the 18Z TAF
period. LLWS is expected at KMOT, KBIS, KJMS early this evening
until just after midnight CST. Gusty south to southwest winds 
are expected to develop over portions of western and central 
North Dakota this afternoon through this evening, with sustained
speeds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots, before somewhat
diminishing overnight through Saturday morning. Winds will 
redevelop across central North Dakota late Saturday through the 
end of TAF period. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Adam