FXUS63 KBIS 150958
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
458 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph develop this
  morning behind a cold front. The winds will continue into this
  evening before gradually diminishing from northwest to
  southeast tonight.  

- Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night
  into Friday morning, especially over western locations.

- Notably milder temperatures to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current surface analysis places low over western Manitoba with
cold front dropping down through western North Dakota into
northwest South Dakota, while high settles through Alberta into
western/central Montana. Upper level analysis places low over
Colorado, with northern stream short wave now pushing through 
Saskatchewan nudging into the Northern Plains. 

For today, aforementioned front will continue its progression
through the state with winds increasing in its wake given the
pressure gradient and cold air advection. Forecast soundings
continue to suggest that ongoing mention of gusts to 55 mph
in the Wind Advisory remain reasonable across the area. The 
only change to the headline was to extend the expiration of the James
River Valley and parts of south central North Dakota into the 
overnight hours as winds look to be slow to diminish over that
area. Along with the wind, expect to see a few light rain 
showers in the wake of the front with the passing short wave. 
Expect this could lead to some brief enhancement of wind gusts 
as light showers pass through.

As we go through tonight, high slides into western North Dakota
and skies clear, which will allow temperatures to drop off to 
below freezing. The question is how far east the skies will 
clear out over central North dakota allowing temperatures to 
drop off. Therefore, will hold off on any freeze headlines for 
now until we can get another look at this later today. 

On Friday, surface high slides off to the south/east, while 
upper ridging to the west slides easterly. This will allow 
temperatures to rebound, though highs will still be a bit below
average.

Upper ridge continues its easterly progression going into
Saturday, when temperatures will climb well above average, with
mid 60s to mid 70s through the area. Seasonably mild 
temperatures and dry conditions continue into the first part of
the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Light rain continues over southern portions of North Dakota, 
though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception 
being in the southern James River Valley where some low level
stratus will linger for a few more hours south of KJMS. A 
passing cold front will result in strong northwesterly winds 
developing during the day, which will linger into the evening 
hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated 
showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 
midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-
013-017>020-022-031>033-035-040>044-055>062.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Friday for 
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS