FXUS61 KBGM 231704 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 104 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments to shower coverage and rainfall amounts through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers with some lake enhancement are still forecasted through Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our region will be under a broad trough of upper level low pressure through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon should begin to decrease this evening with the loss of instability. Southerly to southwesterly winds should dry things out for most of the night into Monday. However, low level lapse rates should steepen during the afternoon leading to the development of additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Small hail can not be ruled out given the modeled lapse rates. The wind direction should become more westerly to northwesterly later Monday night through Tuesday pulling some lake moisture into the picture and generating lake effect showers across CNY. Rainfall amounts look fairly light with only brief heavy downpours. Temperatures though trend cooler due to the clouds and rainfall with highs barely making 70 and lows in the 50's. Our first real feel of fall this year. KEY MESSAGE 2... A break is modeled Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. This still looks short lived as another cold frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday and Friday. Enough lift and moisture should be present ahead of the front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures warm a bit Thursday and Friday into the 80's with the southerly flow. Slightly cooler air and high pressure looks to build into the region next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers are still impacting RME early this morning, but should move out by 13z. Lingering MVFR CIGs will be around the region until around 16-18z, when drier mid level air moves in, lifting and scattering the CIGs (to VFR). After the initial trough passage, more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon hours. Included PROB30 groups for a chance of tsra at our NY TAF sites (mainly 16-21z today), probabilities were too low to include at AVP at this time. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. Southeast winds 5 to 15 kts early this morning are forecast to turn west-southwest later today and increase between 8-18 kts over the area. Winds then diminish below 10 kts heading into this evening and overnight. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...MJM