FXUS61 KBGM 170020
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
820 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A much colder air mass will move into the area tonight into
tomorrow with winds remaining gusty. 

2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will 
gradually warm up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front is progressing its way through NY and PA this
afternoon. Across NY, cloud cover and showers have kept
temperatures cooler and not allowed for much heating. Clouds
have cleared in the Wyoming valley in NEPA so there is starting
to be some surface based CAPE to develop. A bowing storm in
central PA is on line with moving into the Wyoming Valley
between 4 and 5 pm. As of now, strong wind gusts look to be the
main concern as the storms move through NEPA. Shear is strong,
with mesoanalysis showing about 50 knots of bulk shear ahead of
the line. 

In NY, there is a thin line of showers along the front with some
gusts of 30 to 35 mph so still will see some breezy conditions
with its passage but nothing severe. 

Tonight into tomorrow, strong cold air advection will drop
temperatures into the 30s and 40s along with 20 to 30 mph winds
gusts. Wind chills will be at or below freezing for much of the
day so quite the difference from the recent weather we have been
having. Temperatures Saturday night will result in the first
widespread freeze as lows fall into the 20s. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An area of high pressure will remain present over the region 
throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system 
will develop along the East Coast and linger off the Carolinas
and mid Atlantic for much of the week. The strong ridge in place
will keep the low off shore with any precipitation remaining
east of our region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into 
early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help 
push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mix of VFR/MVFR to locally IFR conditions will linger in the 
wake of a cold frontal passage tonight into tomorrow morning, 
with MVFR ceilings expected to be predominate much of the time. 
With a north-northwest wind in place later tonight into early 
tomorrow, there can be some isolated light lake effect rain 
showers that can mix with or even briefly change over to snow 
showers/flurries, mainly around SYR, ITH and BGM. 

Ceilings are expected to start breaking mid-to-late morning and
continue into the afternoon with clear skies in place by the 
end of the TAF as high pressure moves in overhead. Gusty north- 
northwest winds will also continue through much of tomorrow 
before beginning to ease late in the day and into tomorrow 
evening. 

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...High pressure leads to 
mainly VFR conditions with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the
early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning 
     for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL
AVIATION...DK