FXUS63 KARX 160620 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest wind with scattered showers are expected this morning. There is a potential (40-60%) for wind gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily along and west of the Mississippi River. - Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight into Saturday morning. A freeze is very likely (70-100%), particularly north of I-94. A Freeze Warning is now in effect for the area. - Dry and warmer conditions are forecast for Sunday into the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Today: Breezy with Scattered Showers A positively tilted H500 trough will continue to move east and dig south across the central CONUS throughout the day today. At the surface, a cold front has already moved south of the region and northwest to north wind will prevail in its wake. Sufficient moisture should remain in place to generate some scattered showers this morning. The shower activity should wane by mid-day as the synoptic lift exits off to the east. What will be more noticeable, will be the northwest to north wind for the first half of the day. The wind will continue to increase through the night and should peak after sunrise through mid-day. The stronger wind will be aided in part by a tightening surface pressure gradient combined with a LLJ at H850 upwards of 40-45 kts. The newest NBM data continues to paint the higher probabilities for gusts of 45 mph or higher (40-60%) across northeastern Iowa into southwestern Minnesota. The wind will finally decrease this afternoon but moreso this evening into the overnight hours. Tonight into Saturday: Freeze Very Likely Area Wide. Colder air will continue to stream southeast over the Midwest into the Great Lakes region today into Saturday morning. Drier mid-level air moves in which will aid in clearing out the clouds and clear skies are expected throughout the night. The clearing skies combined with cooler airmass and light winds will lead to really good radiational cooling tonight. Overnight lows should be able to easily drop down into the mid to low 30s, with some locations across west central Wisconsin potentially dropping into the mid to lower 20s. The entire area has at least a 70% chance to drop down to freezing and at least a 30% chance to drop down to 28 degrees, or the hard freeze threshold. The Freeze Watch has been converted to a Freeze Warning as confidence in freezing to sub-freezing temperatures continues to increase. Sunday into Next Week: Mostly Dry and Warmer Conditions Synoptic scale ridging returns to the central and eastern CONUS late this weekend into early next week. This pattern will be quite favorable for temperatures to quickly rise back up to near to above average as early as Sunday. The afternoon high temperatures should rise by a few degrees each day through the middle of next week. This pattern will not be favorable for precipitation chances so dry conditions are anticipated to start the next work week. That may change as we get into the later half of next week as a trough digs across the western CONUS and should eventually move east, but this is about a week out so confidence in any one scenario panning out is very low at this point in time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR cigs will continue to overspread the region overnight as post- frontal low-level stratus overspreads the region. As this occurs, embedded showers with some weak instability will occasionally reduce visibilities to MVFR at times this morning. Some IFR cigs cannot be ruled out during this period, however probabilities guidance in the HREF and NBH are not overly confident west of the Mississippi River (30-50% chance). MVFR cigs persist through early afternoon, until guidance generally agrees on quickly clearing out cigs towards evening. Otherwise, winds will remain strong from the north-northwest throughout much of the daytime hours with sustained winds of 15-25 kts with gusts as high as around 35 kts, primarily during the mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds will quickly decrease after sunset with clearing skies by 06z Saturday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Naylor