FXUS63 KARX 152322
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
622 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues the entire area for much of the today with 
  rainfall totals of around 0.5 to 1.5". No impacts are expected
  from this rainfall.

- Breezy northwest winds with a good (40-70%) chance for
  spotty showers on Friday morning and afternoon. There is
  potential (40-60%) for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west
  of the Mississippi River.
 
- Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday 
  morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is very 
  likely (70- 100%), particularly north of Interstate 94, where 
  values may dip below 28. A Freeze Watch is now in effect 
  across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain continues into this evening

As expected, rain is ongoing across the region early this afternoon 
ahead of a southern stream wave currently moving over NE/KS. Rain 
amounts have been light, generally around less than 0.5" over the 
past 6 hours. Expect these rain rates to continue through the 
evening so some spots could get up to 1.5", including morning rain, 
but most will end up with 0.5-1" as their final totals.

Breezy with spotty showers for Friday

Friday, after the southern stream wave phases with the northern 
stream trough currently over Lake Winnipeg, surface low to our east 
will deepen considerably and temperatures aloft in our area cool 
rapidly. A strong surface gradient will be present with pressure 
rises near 2 mb/hr and a northerly 30-40 knot 850mb jet will move 
over the area. The end result will be breezy conditions with 
potential (40-60% per 15.13z NBM) for a 45 mph gust, particularly 
west of the Mississippi valley, just a bit too low of confidence for 
issuance of a Wind Advisory this afternoon.

As for rain, rapidly cooling temperatures aloft will lead to steep 
low level lapse rates with moist conditions within much of the 
boundary layer. This should result in spotty open cellular 
convection across the forecast area but, with shallow updrafts 
ending below the -10C level, am not expecting thunder. Downdrafts 
look to augment the risk for gusts at the surface due to the 
aforementioned 35-40 knot winds present at 850mb.

Freeze very likely Friday night into Saturday morning

Post frontal surface high builds into KS Friday night with this 
surface ridge extending northeast into WI. Clear skies and light 
winds should lead to temperatures tumbling rapidly after sunset. 
Guidance probabilities point strongly to an areawide freeze (at 
least 40/70/70% percent in 15.12z REFS/LREF/NBM). Since the locally 
defined growing season is nearly over but still ongoing, the 
event is within 48 hours, and confidence is at least 50%, the 
criteria for a Freeze Watch has clearly been reached so have 
issued one for the entire CWA. For areas north of I-94, a 
killing freeze with temps below 28 may (30-70%, highest in 
Taylor County) occur as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Ongoing low clouds and precipitation will keep flight conditions
at MVFR to IFR for most of this TAF cycle. The light rain
showers will come to an end at the sites in the next few hours
but then another round of scattered showers will move in from
the north starting around 08-09z. That second round of showers
should dissipate by 15z. The low clouds should remain in place
through at least 18z, but will more than likely linger until
20-21z. Thereafter, the clouds should lift and a return to VFR
conditions is anticipated.

The wind will continue to become northwesterly to northerly at 
all of the sites and will increase through tomorrow morning. 
Sustained winds could reach as high as 20-25 kts with gusts upto 35 kts. The strongest winds are expected to be from roughly 
12-18z. The winds will start to slow down towards the end of 
this TAF cycle.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning 
     for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Muscha