FXUS63 KAPX 200624
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through 
the rest of the work week.


-Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night. 


-Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into
 early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Pattern Synopsis: 


A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress 
northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself 
over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface 
will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region, 
resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather 
through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active 
this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the 
Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts 
through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will 
provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the 
Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will 
remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft 
and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with 
temperatures building above normal for late May.


Forecast Details:


Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold 
and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below 
normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only 
reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only 
concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures 
falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing 
as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency 
of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the 
interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a 
short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas 
closer to lakes remain slightly warmer.
 
Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return 
light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure 
tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With 
weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing 
to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for 
the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday 
and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal 
weather for the holiday weekend. 

Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating 
from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a 
gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region. 
Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will 
return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA. 
Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation 
chances minimal next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several
hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected 
area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest
winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for 
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG