FXUS63 KAPX 191803
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temps continue to filter into N MI this evening and 
  overnight scattered showers end this evening.

- Much cooler Wednesday, with the potential for a widespread 
  frost/freeze Wednesday night.

- Steady warming trend late week into the weekend, watching 
  potential for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 

Cold front to bring sharply colder temperatures this evening and 
tonight consequent of upper low moving across Ontario. Additionally, 
scattered showers from this afternoon will largely end by 7-8PM. 
Expect a cooler night tonight, with some 30s and 40s across northern 
lower and eastern upper MI. Winds will remain elevated through the 
night, and a little breezy at times. 

Upper low continues to sweep eastward across Ontario on Wednesday, 
with sfc high pressure building in across Minnesota and Wisconsin, 
nudging eastward. Expect cool conditions through the day on 
Wednesday, with high temps between 50 to 60 degrees for most. High 
temps a full 15 degrees below average for some. High pressure 
continues to move eastward, settling just to our northwest/north 
Wednesday night. With winds progged to decouple, most locations have 
a good chance for either a front or freeze event. Given this could 
cause decent impacts to vegetation and crops, went with a freeze 
watch for the area. Mixed in MAV guidance to nudge low temps colder.

Next time period of relative mild concern will be the later Friday 
into Saturday time frame. Low pressure and warm advection lifts 
northward, with the potential for rain across the region. This will 
all depend on how subtle energy across the central portions of the 
country is handled which will impact low pressure location. 
Combining GEFS, EPS, and GEPS together yields a high chance for 
>0.1" of rain and a low to medium chance for 0.5". Thus, could 
be a wetting rain for some, although the highest potential is 
shaded farther downstate and especially near DTX. Stay tuned for
additional details. Heights will continue to rise through the 
weekend and into early next week, meaning the warming trend is 
progged to continue. Looks pretty warm early next week if the 
pattern holds true.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Mostly VFR conditions at terminals to start the period, with
MVFR cigs near KCIU. S/SW winds of 10 to 15kts with frequent 
G15 to 20kts as a FROPA approaches from the west. -SHRA chances
will move through from west to east from 20z thru 03z (when the last
chances exit KAPN). Winds will veer W then NE and remain gusty
through 01/03z. Winds remain elevated at 10kts overnight and
will continue to gradually veer. MVFR cigs will move in with the
rain showers, and linger through the end of the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday 
     morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD