FXUS63 KAPX 161807
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy with lingering shower chances into this evening.

- Breezy to windy again at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday. 

- Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure that crossed lower MI last 
night is now situated well downstream in far southern Quebec/just 
north of upstate NY. Pressure gradient has tightened significantly 
this morning between that departing low and high pressure to our 
west -- this'll remain the case through this evening. Parent trough 
axis to the ongoing late week inclement weather is in the process of 
crossing the western Great Lakes this afternoon and early evening, 
with mid-upper level heights rising in its wake for the weekend.  By 
Saturday afternoon through Sunday, northern MI will lie on the 
northern periphery of ~1032mb sfc high pressure centered to our 
south. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to be crossing well to 
our north across parts of northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba/Ontario. A 
tightening pressure gradient locally will be the result once again, 
with renewed breezy to windy conditions. High pressure largely 
expected to remain in control all the way through the middle of next 
week before shower chances return toward the very tail end of the 
forecast period as a northern stream system looks to pass by to our 
north. 

Forecast Details: Stronger dynamics are in the process of 
shifting south and east out of northern MI this afternoon, 
largely taking any synoptically driven rain showers along with 
it. However, strong cold advection supporting increased overlake
instability on the surrounding Great Lakes will likely keep at 
least scattered shower activity across parts of the forecast 
area into this evening (most numerous through sunset in the 
typical NNW flow lake belts). Still a non-zero chance that a few
wet snowflakes mix in after sunset, primarily across the 
typically colder higher terrain/ interior areas of north-central
lower MI -- that's if these areas can materialize a few 
lingering showers, something that's not favored given northerly 
low-level winds. Otherwise, windy conditions remain through this
evening as well with gusts as high as 25-40 mph area-wide 
(highest near the lakeshores). Winds relax mid-evening through 
early Saturday morning.

More sunshine expected for the weekend ahead, but breezy to windy 
conditions expected to return by Saturday afternoon lasting through 
the day on Sunday as northern MI becomes sandwiched between high 
pressure centered to our south and low pressure crossing well to the 
north. Winds largely out of the southwest through this time frame, 
gusting as high as 20-30 mph on Saturday, and 25-35+ mph at times on 
Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday in the low-mid 50s moderate on 
Sunday -- largely ranging from the upper 50s far north to the low-
mid 60s across much of northern lower.

This warming trend from Sunday continues into at least the middle of 
next week as Pacific-dominant flow pattern should allow temperatures 
to remain above normal for mid-October. Highs Monday through 
Wednesday largely in the 60s area-wide, but a few spots climbing 
into the low 70s seem pretty likely. Next rain chances look to hold 
off until Thursday as a northern stream wave is progged to pass by 
to our north. Doesn't appear this will be a big rain maker, but may 
put a damper on temperatures. Even so, no glaring signals for a 
return of below or even near normal temperatures through the end of 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Conditions will improve this evening as CIG’s return to 
VFR at all TAF sites around 0000Z. Current gusty winds from the 
north will diminish overnight then turn southwest Saturday
morning. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC