FXUS64 KAMA 200637
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
137 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible today. There is a chance for some
storms to be severe with large hail being the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances will be daily from Thursday through Tuesday. Some storms
Thursday and Friday could be severe with large hail and damaging 
winds.

Some fog or mist may occur Thursday morning alongside shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

H500 troughing continues through the short term period. Today, H500 
winds will strengthen and create upper level forcing for 
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Low to mid level moisture 
profiles are strongest further south of the High Plains, though 
sufficient Theta-E for convection should extend all the way to the 
Oklahoma Panhandle based off Tuesday's model guidance. Overnight 
surface winds will veer from northeast to southeast. South to 
southeasterly wind flow will also aid in moisture transport into our 
CWA. Tomorrow, theta-e profiles remain generally high across the 
region. Surface wind flow remains south to southeasterly and 
measurable QPF remains spread across the combined Panhandles. The 
highest concentration of rainfall remains forecast to occur 
tonight through Thursday morning.

00Z CAMs suggest that showers and thunderstorms are more likely to 
advance from the Southern Plains than off the high terrain in New 
Mexico. Concerns are still present that pockets of subsidence will 
exist as showers move into the Panhandle region. This will lend to a 
more scattered than widespread storm mode; and given the convective 
nature, not every location will receive equivalent rainfall totals. 
SBCIN will still be present by the time storms arrive in the early 
afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to be higher than SBCAPE across the
area; therefore, elevated storms are anticipated and inhibition 
will be overcome since parcels will be lifting above the cap. 
Steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear will
create an environment conditionally favorable for severe storms 
with hail as the primary hazard. The main weakness to this setup 
is the lack of quality MLCAPE. Instability will be highest across 
the southwestern Texas Panhandle with values over 1,000 J/kg 
possible. Storms that move into this zone will have the highest 
chance of becoming severe.

Cloud coverage is expected to be extensive across the High Plains
today, with little breaks from cover to allow for substantial day
time heating. Given these conditions, highs will be below average
for this time of year ranging from the 60s to lower 70s. Lows 
this morning will be in the 40s with some lower 50s likely in the 
southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Tonight into Thursday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms 
will continue though this period. Mesoscale parameters are expected 
to be unfavorable for night time convection to become severe. Mist 
and some fog may also be present alongside the shower activity given 
the moisture through the region. Cloud coverage will remain high 
through much of the day, but there may be a window of clearing 
Thursday afternoon from west to east. This will allow highs to reach 
the 70s and create enough heating for instability to increase. The 
most recent CAMs display thunderstorms forming off the high terrain 
once again, but this time holding together as the move east into the 
Panhandles. Storms tomorrow are expected to be surface based with 
CAPE values between 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg. The highest effective shear 
is expected across the northwest combined Panhandles, but favorable 
SBCAPEand sufficient low and mid-level lapse rates may allow for a 
the conditional severe threat to exist further south of our 
northwest zone.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Upper level troughing continues through much of the long term
period. High temperatures will steadily return to average values 
heading into the weekend. Friday to Sunday expect 70s to lower 
80s. Monday and beyond current trends suggest we return to the mid
80s. The potential for severe thunderstorms still exits in the 
east on Friday; however, concerns remain prevalent on dryline 
placement and how diffuse it may be by the time convective 
initiation is expected to occur. The NBM remain set on +50% PoPs 
Saturday afternoon, but as we head into next week, we may see a 
decline for rain chances across the CWA. 

Rangel


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions tonight will become MVFR later this morning. The
National Blend of Models guidance suggests that IFR ceilings will
begin near sunrise and linger through the afternoon. The highest
confidence for thunderstorms currently exists for KAMA, so PROB30
has been added for the afternoon and evening period. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are possible but chances are much lower for impacts
at this time. MVFR ceilings should continue through the majority
of the remaining 06Z TAF period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55