FXUS64 KAMA 181557 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1057 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist Today. - A cold front will arrive this evening bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently, a dryline boundary over the eastern combined Panhandles has begun its retreat west. Although we have observed isolated attempts at convective initiation, updrafts have not been able to sustain as convection moves off the boundary. Tonight, RH recovery is dependent on both a weak cold front in the north and the retreating dryline in the east. Current guidance points toward a weak cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, which would bring with it increased RH values and a W to even NW wind shift in the western OK Panhandle and NW TX Panhandle. This weak cold front, and the dryline retreating west overnight could put the majority of of the Panhandles in decent (greater than 50%) Rh recovery. However, it will likely leave the western TX and north-central TX Panhandle counties in quite poor RH recovery overnight (20-30%). An upper-level trough will swing from the southwestern US, through the 4-corners, and into the plains through the course of tonight and tomorrow. This will re-establish a lee-side surface low pressure system in eastern CO. The cold front that pushes into the northern CWA tonight will retreat as southerly/southwesterly winds strengthen to the south of the front and the low strengthens. As the low strengthens, and 850 mb support arrives in the form of a LLJ around 35-40 kts, surface winds are expected to respond with intensification in the Panhandles. Sustained winds could reach 30-35 mph across the Panhandles, with gusts up to 50 mph. Minimum RH's as low as 4%, with widespread minimums of 5-10% across the combined Panhandles will lead to critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. Thee dryline on Monday will push east throughout the day, and CAMs are in agreement that there will likely not be enough forcing present along it to initiate convection. However, a cold strong cold front is expected to push through the area on Monday night. The cold front will enter the OK Panhandle around 7-8 PM, reaching Amarillo around 10-11 PM. This cold front will bring increased relative humidity, but with the strength of the cold front and the tightening of the associated surface pressure gradient as it pushed through, it will likely bring some continued breezy post frontal winds from the north. So, although RH's will improve, winds will stay breezy (20-25 mph sustained) behind the front on Monday night. The cold front will knock down temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles. Low temperatures Tuesday morning could reach the low 30's in the NW CWA, while high temperatures will dip below average for most of the CWA. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will persist for the majority of the forecast period. With a deeper trough axis in the SW, with the base extending south of CA, the surface level response to shortwave perturbations will likely be low-pressure centers in NM rather than CO. This would place us in the true warm sector of a weather pattern. This signal seems to persist from Wednesday through at least Saturday at this time. Greater confidence in severity and timing of showers orthunderstorms will be gained in the short term, as the atmosphere will likely still be recovering from the last weather system, persistent cloud cover could reduce severe chances, and the signal/synoptic support for this system is less forthright than the last. However, the signal is there, and if the atmosphere is able to build instability and avoid workover from multiple days of weather, showers and thunderstorms (possibly severe) are on the table. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Brief MVFR conditions to start the 12Z TAF period at KAMA due to low cigs, but should quickly return to VFR by 14-15Z. VFR conditions then expected at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts to start, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts around 40 kts starting around 16-17Z through about 00Z Tuesday before diminishing to 10-20 kts around 06Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 With extremely critical fire weather conditions still expected to materialize this afternoon and evening, the arguably greatest factor of concern lies with any existing fires and the arrival of a cold front to the region later this evening. This front dropped further south than models anticipated this morning, helping higher humidity and cooler temperatures linger across the NW and central Panhandles. Unfortunately, there are no favorable parameters for these conditions to linger through the day, and the front should easily retreat northward allowing drier air and southwest winds of 25-35 mph gusting up to 50 mph to take over the rest of this afternoon-evening. The cold front will fully breach the Panhandles this evening, quickly shifting winds out of the north at 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph (10-20% chance for a few gusts >40 mph). Better moisture behind the front will help humidity values greatly improve overnight (60-90% RH), but the initial wind shift will pose a significant risk for any existing fires to spread rapidly southward. This front is currently projected to reach the OK Panhandle as early as 6-8 PM, the northern and central TX Panhandle as early as 8-10 PM, and the I- 40 corridor by 10 PM to midnight. We will monitor the timing of the front closely through the day. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...29