FXUS64 KAMA 161758 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1258 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Windy conditions continue today with gusts up to 45 mph expected. - Freezing temperatures are likely across most of the combined Panhandles Saturday morning. Frost development is also expected areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The surface pressure gradient remains tight today as a cold airmass settles in and cold air continues to push southward. Strong, northerly flow will keep highs bound to the 50s today. Wind gusts in some areas this afternoon could get as high as 45 mph, but are more likely to stay in the 30-40 mph range. Tonight, a surface high moves across the southern High Plains and will sharply drop wind speeds. This combined with clear skies will lead to radiational cooling across the CWA. Freezing temperatures and frost development are expected as a result. The NBM and HiRes models suggest temperatures should bottom out in the mid to upper 20s across the north, while the south will be in the low to mid 30s. High pressure does not stay settled over the region. Later in the afternoon on Saturday, a surface low will setup over southeast CO. As a result, wind speeds will ramp up in our northwest zones. However, the wind direction will return to southwesterly flow across the whole area. Highs tomorrow will increase to the upper 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60s more likely where winds are strongest in the north. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Long range models are still honing in on the details of our next impactful upper level system. A deepening trough in the northern Pacific will eventually transitions south into the western CONUS. Before then, a weak cutoff low will move into the Plains and aid in moisture advection and create positive vorticity in our CWA for the start of the new workweek. Since this first system is weaker and further west than previous model runs, PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday are decreasing in the Panhandles and are more focused on the states to our west. The main system is now not expected to impact the High Plains until later in the week and into next weekend. The current NBM and LREF ensemble members show increasing rain chances Thursday onward, but there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding QPF. The latest ensemble guidance has higher chances for 24 hour QPF less than 0.1" and much lower chances for 24 hour QPF greater than 0.5" for the late week. Of course, with the highest impacts from this system more likely 7 days out, there still time for the details to become more resolved concerning this system's potential. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours at all sites. Strong winds also prevail at the terminals this afternoon, but they will become light and variable after sunset. Light winds are expected through the remainder of the 18Z period. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>014- 016>018-317. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ015-019-020. OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55