FXUS61 KALY 162323 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties has been canceled. The slight to low chance of thunderstorms has been removed from the forecast area for the rest of the night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued gusty winds and unseasonably chilly conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow are possible in the higher terrain late tonight into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with temperatures moderating to near seasonable levels late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch #687 has been canceled for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The threat for thunderstorms has diminished with the front moving across western New England early tonight. In the wake of the cold front brisk/blustery conditions occur, as west/northwest winds 10-20 mph shift to the northwest with the cold advection. Some gusts 25-35 mph will likely occur with a few isolated gusts around 40 mph funneling down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital Region, northern Taconics and the Berkshires. Some gusty winds are also possible over the northern/eastern Catskills. In the wake of the front with the mid and upper trough approaching, some upslope rain to snow showers will occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Some light snow accums of a coating to a few tenths of inch may occur. Some light snow showers/flurries could occur over the northern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires due to upslope and lake enhanced showers. The low- level flow quickly veers to the northwest with some multi-bands of lake effect potentially grazing the northern and eastern Catskills Saturday morning. Latest NAEFS indicate H850 temp anomalies will be 1 to 2 STDEVs below normal. The actual H850 temps fall to -6C to -9C from Albany north and west into the Adirondacks to 0C to -6C readings south and east towards the I-84 corridor by daybreak Saturday. Temps will fall quickly with widespread lows in the 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20s over the south/southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens. Wind chill temps or "feels-like" temps when combining the winds with the air temps will be in the teens to mid/upper 20s over the higher terrain with mainly 30s in the valleys with some mid/upper 20s in the western Mohawk Valley. It will feel like early Winter. Upslope and lake effect snow showers/flurries or sprinkles will end in the late morning with the subsidence inversion lowering. The brisk northwest winds will continue with chilly temps with daytime highs only in the 40s in the valleys with a few readings near 50F in the Hudson Valley and 30s to lower 40s over the hills and mtns. The winds will persist from the northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph due to the sfc pressure gradient and some deeper mixing. We increased gusts slightly blending in the latest NBM 90th percentile. The latest NBM 24-hr probs for gusts >35 mph are low from 2 am Sat to 2 am Sun, as they are only 20-40% over the northern Taconics/northern Berkshires and eastern Catskills. Gusts > 40 mph are less than 15%, so no Wind Advisories expected. Wind Chills/"Feels-like" temps will continue in the 20s and 30s for much of the day. The winds subside fairly quickly Saturday night with the sfc high building in from the Ohio Valley over PA and NY. Lows fall into the 20s to around 30F. The growing season is over, but a widespread frost will occur across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will be overhead and nearby NY and New England to close the weekend with temps rebounding after a cold start into the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s acrosseastern NY and western New England with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Another chilly night is expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but temps moderate to seasonal levels in the 50s to around 60F on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Dry weather and seasonable temps continue through the mid week, as we monitor a potential nor'easter near the Mid Atlantic Coast during the mid week (Tue- Wed time frame). && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z Sunday...Cold front has cleared the entire area. Dry weather expected the rest of the night, except for some -SHRA lingering behind the front at KPSF through around 01z. Mainly VFR conditions with mid level clouds should prevail tonight into early Saturday morning, except for MVFR cigs lingering at KPSF tonight due to NW upslope flow. Clouds will scour out by late Saturday morning as high pressure approaches from the west. Winds will become northwest tonight and increase to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt developing, lasting through Saturday afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...07